After differing bounces, the two contenders have two months and three debates to go before the United States presidential election.

Mario Canseco

With the two conventions behind them, Americans have just over eight weeks to decide their vote in the 2004 presidential election. August was dominated by discussions about the military record of the two main candidates.

The controversy began after a spot by a Republican-leaning group called "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" alleged that Democratic nominee John Kerry exaggerated his actions during the Vietnam War in order to earn medals. Kerry filed a legal complaint before the Federal Election Commission (FEC), and Republican incumbent George W. Bush eventually "condemned" the activities of the 527's, the outside groups that sometimes fund political advertisements in the United States.

Ten days ago, the president headed to his party's convention in New York City embroiled in a tight race. The first national public opinion indicators released after Bush's acceptance speech suggested an uneven bounce for the incumbent: Three per cent in a Zogby America survey, four per cent in a Gallup/CNN/USA Today study, six per cent in a Time inquiry and 12 per cent in a Princeton Survey Research Associates/Newsweek poll. A CBS News survey released today gave the incumbent a four per cent increase. In all four cases, the Republican is leading the Democrat outside the statistical margin of error.

After Kerry accepted the Democratic nomination in late July, American public opinion was initially not as kind. The Democrats fell by one per cent in both a Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll and a CBS News survey, remained steady in a Zogby America study, and went up by two per cent in both the Time and the Princeton Survey Research Associates/Newsweek inquiries.

Early Electoral College predictions illustrate how the race remains closely contested, especially in three key battleground states. In Florida, no candidate has been able to garner a clear advantage since mid-August, leaving the Sunshine State's 25 electoral votes effectively up for grabs.

In the race for Ohio's 21 electoral votes, Bush has achieved a 10.9 per cent lead in a Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal Online poll, and a nine per cent advantage in today's Gallup/CNN/USA Today survey.

In Pennsylvania—which looked safely in the Kerry column for most of the summer—the competition for the state's 23 electoral votes has heated up. Kerry and Bush were tied in a late August Gallup/CNN/USA Today study, and the Republican ticket had a two per cent lead in a Strategic Vision survey. The Democrat was ahead by four per cent in a Rasmussen Reports monthly tracking poll, and by 2.8 per cent in a Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal Online inquiry.

The remaining weeks of the campaign will provide several opportunities for more shifts in public opinion, starting with this weekend's third anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Yesterday in Iowa, vice-president Dick Cheney hinted that the country could get "hit again" should the Democrats win the election, prompting vice-presidential nominee John Edwards to accuse him of "scare tactics."

Three presidential debates—and one pitting Cheney and Edwards—have been scheduled, but not yet officially agreed to by both parties. If all goes as planned, Bush and Kerry are to meet in Florida on Sept. 30, in Missouri on Oct. 8, and in Arizona on Oct. 13. The vice-presidential nominees will face off on Oct. 5 in Ohio.

The statistics of elections past provide optimism for both camps. Republican backers would be pleased to know that only Harry Truman in 1948 and Ronald Reagan in 1980 have come from behind to win after trailing the opposing nominee on Labour Day. Democratic supporters might take solace in the fact that no incumbent has been re-elected with an approval rating of less than 50 per cent six months before the presidential ballot. This past May, Bush fell to 46 per cent in a Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll.

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