A highly divisive debate over the sale of natural gas will continue to unfold with a new head of state.

Mario Canseco

In less than 10 days, Bolivian president Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada went from unpopularity to exile, and vice-president Carlos Mesa ventured from a resignation letter to a swearing-in ceremony. The key issue that forced the change at the helm after a series of violent clashes remains open for debate, and the political and economical future of the country hangs in the balance.

Just five months ago, in a poll by Estudios MORI published in daily El Deber, 50 per cent of Bolivian respondents supported the government's proposal to commercialize natural gas. The move seemed a perfect answer for the South American country's financial woes, as Bolivia sits on the continent's second-largest natural gas reservoir.

The much-heralded plan was originally tabled by Sánchez de Lozada, a member of the Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR—Nationalist Revolutionary Movement) elected just last year. The main hindrance was purely geographical. Bolivia is landlocked, so a port in northern Chile was repeatedly suggested as a possible starting point for the pipeline. The project was said to be worth $5 billion U.S. to the national economy, and the United States and Mexico were mentioned as prospective customers.

As the weeks progressed, Sánchez de Lozada's idea faced strong opposition, as political and labour leaders saw advantages for private investors and the government, but little benefit for the average Bolivian, currently earning little more than $2 U.S. a day. Natural gas became a source of sovereignty rather than an exploitable natural resource.

Protests intensified after Sánchez de Lozada suggested a nationwide referendum to settle the dispute. Demonstrations in La Paz and El Alto led to confrontations with law enforcement officers, where dozens of people died. Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS—Movement towards Socialism) party member Evo Morales and Movimiento Indígena Pachakuti (MIP—Indigenous Pachakuti Movement) lawmaker Felipe Quispe—two losing presidential candidates in 2002—were the first to question the plebiscite's merit. National union head Jaime Solares took the issue further, demanding Sánchez de Lozada's resignation.

Last week, the president began to lose the backing of his own people, as vice-president Mesa quit. Vowing never to step down, Sánchez de Lozada said the movement against him was "a coup by narco-unionists." The president also claimed his opponents relied on financing from abroad, even hinting at the involvement of Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez.

The parting embarrassment came when the president cited an online poll featured on the web page of the popular Fides Catholic Radio Network. According to Sánchez de Lozada, more than two-thirds of all respondents expressed confidence in his leadership.

A few hours after the president mentioned the survey in several interviews, Fides acknowledged that their web page had been hacked. The true results of the non-scientific online poll—with more than 10,000 respondents—had been reversed without a hitch. In reality, 66 per cent of the actual participants wanted Sánchez de Lozada out.

The president finally resigned and headed for Washington as Mesa was sworn in as Bolivia's new head of state on Oct. 19. Mesa quickly assembled a unique cabinet, which includes two indigenous representatives and an anti-corruption commissioner. The inclusive staff—backed by all political factions, but encompassing no party members—is keeping indigenous and union leaders happy, at least temporarily.

Still, the highly controversial portfolio of gas and mining remains vacant. The country's new foreign minister, Juan Ignacio Silas del Valle, will apparently be in charge of negotiations to see the gas proposal through. Curiously enough, Silas is the nephew of Jaime del Valle, who acted as Chile's foreign minister during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. Although Bolivia lost its only ports in the 1879 war against Chile, it was Pinochet who further denied access 25 years ago, a decision that resulted in broken diplomatic ties between the two nations.

As the unpopular Sánchez de Lozada exits the political stage, Mesa must try to meet public demands for accountability, while finding a remedy for the country's dire financial state. The solution might still involve a pipeline, but there will be plenty of meetings and talks before any final project is approved.

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