Angus Reid Global Monitor : Politics In Depth

Big Four Vie for Government in Northern Ireland

November 21, 2003

The main political organizations look to make the best of a second chance at self-rule, after a controversial and divisive campaign.

Abstract: Mario Canseco Northern Ireland voters will renew their Assembly next week.

Mario Canseco

Northern Ireland voters will renew their Assembly next week. Lawmakers have been absent from the legislature since October 2002, when the Catholic-Protestant administration was suspended after law enforcement authorities accused Denis Donaldson—a Sinn Fein legislative aide—of gathering intelligence for possible attacks by the Irish Republican Army (IRA).

Two dates for the vote were set and cancelled, as Great Britain assumed responsibility over the direction and control of Northern Ireland. The electorate finally gets a chance on Nov. 26, in a closely contested vote that many are hoping leads to a new power-sharing deal and lasting peace for the troubled zone.

The area has remained divided along religious lines for several centuries, as Catholics and Protestants live side-by-side, with different concepts of how their land should be administered. The last four decades of violence and confrontation have left 3,000 people dead.

The latest Millward Brown Ulster/Belfast Telegraph voting intention poll puts the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) on top with 26 per cent, followed by the Social Democratic Labour Party (SDLP) and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) with 22 per cent each, and Sinn Fein with 20 per cent. Negotiations between these four political forces will outline the future of Northern Ireland.

The UUP's David Trimble was chosen as Northern Ireland's first minister in 1999, after his political organization secured 28 seats in the 108-member assembly. Since becoming party leader in 1995, Trimble has been the main voice for accords in the area. He shared the 1998 Nobel Peace Prize with then-SDLP leader John Hume, after brokering the Good Friday Agreement, which called for the decommissioning of illegal weapons owned by paramilitary groups.

The SDLP's Mark Durham is trying to emerge from Hume's shadow, and has tried to champion nationalism while staying away from radical violence. He was Northern Ireland's finance minister in the previous short-lived administration, a post that once again seems within reach.

Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams continues to sway public opinion, as many regard him as an incontrovertible defender of the republican cause, while others see him as nothing more than a justifier of IRA attacks. Despite the fact that the armed group has accepted a truce, no definite renunciation of violence has been issued. Adams faces a problematic road courting nationalist voters that may choose the younger Durham to advance their principles in the assembly.

The DUP's Ian Paisley is the most outspoken critic of Sinn Fein, describing them as "terrorists in government." His party is still opposed to several key points of the Good Friday Agreement, and Paisley intends to take his vision to Europe, where he has served as a parliamentarian since 1979.

The campaign's nervous climate was typified by a single incident. The two unionist leaders had a public clash on Nov. 18, as Paisley tried to paste a campaign poster outside UUP headquarters. In a heated exchange, Trimble decried the DUP leader for "running away" from a debate.

The previous weeks have also provided controversy. A new registration system was put in place, requiring every adult to fill an individual application. The previous practice allowed for household forms, which included the name of every voter in a particular address. The new rules may alienate more than 200,000 prospective electors.

Britain has hailed the elections in Northern Ireland as a positive step, but regardless of the vote's outcome, the "Big Four" will be invited to London for talks on how the new government will be assembled.

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