Credit:UN Photo / Eskinder Debebe

President Obasanjo promised a trouble-free election. But the trouble has already surfaced.

Gabriela Perdomo - There is no need to portray an apocalyptic view of yet another African state going on a downward spiral. But in the run towards a presidential ballot, Nigeria's questionable regional elections last weekend do raise concerns over the future of Africa's most populous country.

Official results from the Apr. 14 elections gave the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) a comfortable victory, with their representatives winning 26 out of 36 states. The party of Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo must be thrilled, but Nigerians have little to be cheerful about. Every observing mission in the country condemned the regional poll and denounced massive irregularities.

Voting day was marked by confusion, disorganization, lack of vigilance in many areas and outbreaks of violence that left a toll of about 50 fatal victims according to media reports. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recognized the poll was not legitimate in two states, Imo and Enugu, and there will be a re-vote scheduled over the next few weeks.

Chris Albin-Lackey, a Nigeria-based researcher with the international civil organization Human Rights Watch, condemned the elections, saying, "These results have absolutely no relationship to reality." Opposition parties claim elections were rigged in more than two states. Muhammadu Buhari, a presidential candidate for the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP), told international reporters that "The PDP stalwarts are organizing thugs, carrying away boxes, diverting other election materials." Otunba Pedro, presidential contender for the Labour Party (LP), also said allegedly on behalf of other six candidates: "The whole exercise was marred with rigging, violence and thuggery which has made the election invalid. We all participated in the election with faith and confidence in the electoral process. The confidence was eroded."

Weeks ago, election-related violence was already being reported all over Nigeria. Jumoke Okoya-Thomas, a member of parliament with the opposition Alliance for Democracy (AD), and a group of 19 legislators recently brought up the issue in the House of Representatives. Her statement read: "A situation where political thugs freely kill and maim law abiding citizens and turn the country into a hotbed of violence is capable of derailing the electoral process. Mr. Speaker, we should not sit down here and watch our youth being recruited as killing machine. Unless something is done to urgently reverse the trend, our democracy will be endangered. We know that the arms being used by these thugs are supplied by politicians and we must rise up to condemn this orgy of violence. But more surprising is the fact that the police appear helpless while Nigerians are killed and maimed."

Okoya-Thomas' statement touched on two key points: that, as has occurred in so many other "young democracies", some Nigerian parties still rely on the force of armed militias in order to secure and prove their power; and that the Nigerian police is still haunted by its political past, and must regain its independence if it wants to become a truly respectable and legitimate institution.

Both are problems that will certainly resurface this Saturday, in a particularly significant presidential election. They are serious warnings, but it must be recognized that Nigeria has come a long way since it committed to democracy eight years ago. President Obasanjo has lived to his promise of not seeking a third term in office, honouring the constitutional limit of two terms for heads of state.

The political system has slowly granted independence to the different branches of government, and the judiciary is seen now as an independent body. This has been demonstrated in many cases, the last one just yesterday, with the announcement by Nigeria's Supreme Court that vice-president Atiku Abubakar will be able to take part in the presidential race.

The Court's ruling is good news. INEC had disqualified Abubakar's candidacy before over allegations of corruption, bringing back old concerns over the body's true independence from the government—especially since Abubakar and the president are now personal foes. The Court argued it found no grounds for keeping the vice-president out of the race despite the president's obvious desire to keep it that way.

If Nigeria's political establishment survives the presidential ballot, this would be the first time an elected government would transfer power to another elected government. After years of military administrations, rampant corruption and a brutal civil war in the 1970s, this election is seen as the confirmation that the nation has entered a new era of political maturity.

The allegations over the troubled elections last weekend are serious and grave. But, on the bright side, Nigeria's clamour for more transparency and accountability is a good sign. Politicians and legislators seem to have better arguments for confronting each other, and opposition parties are giving the people a real choice. Nigeria's progress deserves praise, and as much criticism as possible in order to push it forward.

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