A series of accusations and mishaps force the president to take the political gamble of his life.

Mario Canseco

After less than a year in office, with a close aide facing corruption allegations and enduring public setbacks in areas such as relations with North Korea and the war in Iraq, South Korean president Roh Moo-hyun decided to put his presidency on the line in a nationwide referendum.

The vote has no precedent in the country's history, and is already being labeled by the opposition as a last ditch effort to boost a lagging approval rating. Roh sees the public ballot as a "vote of confidence" and has even suggested Dec. 15 as a possible date for the plebiscite. If the results are not favorable for his government, the president has promised to resign and hold new presidential elections in April 2004, coinciding with the scheduled parliamentary vote.

Roh must await confirmation, as the constitution must be carefully reviewed to guarantee that such an election can be held. The president called the vote without the support of his Millennium Democratic Party (MDP) and the opposition Grand National Party (GNP). Both political organizations quickly issued statements condemning the plebiscite. A small segment of MDP lawmakers still stands by the president, meaning Roh has the backing of just 42 members in the 273-seat National Assembly.

After his election on Dec. 19, 2002 with 49 per cent of the vote, Roh—a political activist jailed briefly during the 1987 pro-democracy demonstrations—was regarded as a perfect fit for the country's new challenges. Just eight months into his term, the public has been mostly disappointed. Weeks of talks provided no detectable progress in assessing North Korea's nuclear intentions. Also, the president has not fully responded to an American request to send troops to Iraq.

Still, the fundamental complication is a judicial investigation into the behavior of Choi Do-sool, a close personal aide. Choi allegedly accepted a sum of almost $1 million U.S. from private firm SK Group before last year's election. The business conglomerate is already the subject of another investigation, after the country's Fair Trade Commission levied fines for several accounting irregularities in subsidiary SK Global.

South Korea has a painfully long history of political malfeasance, originated due to the amicable relationship between military governments and private investors, and culminating in the famous "Slush Fund Scandal", which led to the imprisonment of former presidents Chun Doo-Hwan and Roh Tae-Woo.

Prosecutors have repeatedly stated that the current president is not connected to the Choi case, but the issue has received full coverage from media outlets that had been chided by Roh. Last July, the head of state filed a $2.54 million U.S. libel lawsuit against a GNP politician and four newspapers for comments and stories about an alleged real estate registry violation.

Faced with all these difficulties, Roh said he had no choice but to call a referendum. It will take days for the unusual election to be finally scheduled and organized. In the latest public opinion poll by the Yonhap News Agency, 42.5 per cent of respondents said they would vote to keep the president, a 6.2 per cent lead over the opposing camp.

If the plebiscite finally happens, the electorate will take more than accusations and mishaps to the voting booth. South Koreans will also have to assess the prospect of a leaderless nation in a particularly troubling time.

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