Politics In Depth

Chileans Likely to Elect First Female President

August 05, 2005

Centre-leftist Michelle Bachelet leads the polls on the presidential race as the coalition of the right battles with internal division.

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) Gabriela Perdomo - For the first time in the South American nation's history, a woman is close to becoming head of state.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) Gabriela Perdomo - For the first time in the South American nation's history, a woman is close to becoming head of state. An eventual victory for former defence minister Michelle Bachelet in the Dec. 11 election could bring an end to Chile's reputation of being one of the most conservative countries in the region.

Bachelet is the candidate for the Socialist Party (PS) and also represents the Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD), a coalition formed by the PS, the Christian-Democratic Party of Chile (PCD), the Party for Democracy (PD) and the Radical Social-Democratic Party (PRSD). The latest Benchmark poll shows she is dominating the presidential campaign with 42 per cent of the intended vote. Former Santiago—Chile's capital city— mayor Joaquín Lavín of the Independent Democratic Union (UDI) is second with 23 per cent, and businessman Sebastián Piñera of National Renewal (RN) follows him with 17 per cent. They both belong to the right-wing Alianza (Alliance) coalition. Tomás Hirsch of the leftist Together We Can (JP) is last with two per cent.

Bachelet's early success is great news for the CPD, which has been Chile's ruling coalition since 1989, when the transition to democracy started after a 17-year dictatorship. The CPD has led a period of mostly good results in the areas of political stability and economic growth, and Chile is now considered the "South American miracle."

However, Bachelet's tenure might prove controversial. The 53-year-old single mother is running for president in a widely Catholic country, where divorce became legal just last year and where only four per cent of the members of the Senate are women. She is also the daughter of an air force general executed for opposing Augusto Pinochet in the 1970s, in a country where many people still support the former dictator.

Her close ties with Pinochet's foes go beyond her father. Bachelet has publicly admitted she had a close relationship with Alex Vojkovic, an engineer who collaborated with the Manuel Rodríguez Patriotic Front (FPMR), a radical organization responsible among other things for a failed assault against Pinochet in 1986. Bachelet has denied her individual participation with the FPMR, but she clearly represents the voice of opponents to the Pinochet regime, many of them identified then as radical leftists.

Pinochet is still a polarizing figure. His bloody regime—which left over 3,000 dead and missing—is still fresh on the minds of Chileans. Today, powerful political parties such as the UDI still identify themselves with the former dictator, and candidly claim Chile is what it is thanks to Pinochet.

Though it has been explicit ever since the dictatorship was over, this open endorsement of one of the most infamous Latin American rulers is starting to affect the right-wing parties. For months, Lavín was regarded as the only Alianza contender. In May, billionaire businessman Piñera was appointed as the RN nominee, effectively splitting the right. While Lavín is seen as an old Pinochetist and savvy politician—he lost the last election to current president Ricardo Lagos by only 2.6 per cent—Piñera has never identified with the dictator and now appears as the centrist alternative within the conservative ranks. The addition of Piñera to the electoral scenario has benefited Bachelet, revealing a weakened right divided by the phantom of Pinochetism.

Those who still praise the dictatorship seem to be losing adepts in times when international pressure has grown to try Pinochet for crimes against humanity. Three consecutive centre-leftist governments have enhanced public outcry over the Pinochet era. The former dictator himself even lost his legal immunity during Lagos' tenure.

In addition to this, as even rightist politicians acknowledge, Lagos has successfully transformed the left into a more centrist and moderate ideology, and has started to break the gap between radicals from both extremes.

Lavín says if the right keeps two candidates, Bachelet will become president. Piñera has refused giving up his campaign and appears to be gaining ground every day, even moving to second place behind Bachelet in an Instituto Libertad y Desarrollo survey. The Alianza's division has demonstrated that, right now, the worse enemy for Chile' right lies within. If Bachelet maintains her high numbers until December, there will be no need for a second round, as stipulated in case none of the candidates gets more than 50 per cent of the vote.