The much-hyped votes in California and Venezuela might not take place as soon as expected.

Mario Canseco

The two anticipated fall recalls have been unexpectedly postponed. In California, Arnold Schwarzenegger faced another "Rise of the Machines," as a state court observed that voters should not cast their ballots using outdated contraptions. In Venezuela, president Hugo Chávez has so far survived the first stage of the effort to remove him from office, as many signatures collected to force a plebiscite on his tenure were deemed fraudulent.

The California decision was based on a 2000 Supreme Court ruling in the case known simply as Bush v. Gore. The judges said it would be unacceptable for the electorate in six counties to employ the problematic tools that led to legal action in Florida. Recall advocates quickly pointed out that these same punch-card ballots were good enough to elect governor Gray Davis in 2002.

The enormous list of gubernatorial candidates had slimmed down over the past few weeks. Republicans Bill Simon and Peter Ueberroth were the first to throw in the towel, with an implicit message: the GOP must unite behind a single person to win the recall election. Early favourites Schwarzenegger and Tom McClintock have not heeded the call yet.

As the court is set to reconsider its decision on Sept. 20, the possibility of a vote in March 2004 might entice Simon and Ueberroth to get back in the race. The other issue at stake is whether the state can withstand six more months of campaign appearances, debates and media scrutiny.

The overexcitement of early clips about Hustler magazine publisher Larry Flint, adult film star Mary Carey—complete with her unique "Porn for Pistols" proposal—and former sitcom standout Gary Coleman appears to be gone for good. Still, an open race that lingers for half a year might be too much to bear, even for the current governor.

Lost in the celebrity fervor is the lone Democratic hopeful, Cruz Bustamante. The state's lieutenant governor has been criticized for campaigning for both a "No" vote on the recall, and a "Yes" vote on him. Perhaps this double-edged stance prompted Davis to enlist the biggest Democratic draws in his effort to save his job. Former president Bill Clinton, former vice-president Al Gore and early 2004 frontrunner Howard Dean have all dismissed the recall.

Californians appear to be mostly enthused about the election, but Americans in other states are not as buoyant. 47 per cent of respondents to an August Opinion Dynamics/Fox News poll said the recall is "silly." In neighbouring Nevada, 68 per cent of respondents to a July Research 2000/Reno Gazette-Journal/KRNV-TV survey are against a similar effort to remove governor Kenny Guinn, recently in the news over the state's controversial $5 billion U.S. budget.

As far as the involvement of celebrities in politics, 54 per cent of respondents to an August CBS News poll saw nothing wrong with actors pursuing public service. Venezuela's Chávez began his presidency in 2000 with a popularity only enjoyed by beauty queens and sports legends. As the economy suffered, his rating plummeted, and the ensuing political fight has split the country into two factions.

Since May, a coalition of business leaders, labour unions and opposition parties was assembled to force a referendum. On Aug. 20, the Coordinadora Democrática (CD—Democratic Coordination) presented 3.2 million signatures, 800,000 more than constitutionally required. The country's electoral commission stated that the process was "flawed" and denied the plebiscite request. The CD will start a new search for names on Oct. 5.

In the end, the recalls that were supposed to put decisions back into the hands of electors have been suspended by established entities, a court in the Golden State and a commission in the Latin American nation. The following weeks will be decisive for the completion of both exercises. In California, it's a matter of when. In Venezuela—depending on whom you ask—it's a question of how or why.

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