The president picked Rajoy to lead the Popular Party. Voters and political alliances will decide his fate.

Mario Canseco

For several decades, Mexican presidents chose their successors through a process affectionately known as "destape", or unveiling. The sitting head of state would single-handedly select a cabinet minister to succeed him. Then, all sectors of the ruling Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI—Institutional Revolutionary Party) joyously supported the "chosen one."

In Spain, the term "destape" is used to describe a very different process, the dawning of a country after almost 40 years of oppression under Francisco Franco. Every post-war intellectual revolution took place in a matter of weeks after the dictator's death in 1975, and the appearance of unveiled, semi-nude women in magazines became trite.

Last weekend, Spanish president José María Aznar issued a Mexican-style "destape." Aznar began to prepare his departure from politics in 2000, repeatedly stating that he would not seek a third term in office. Political scientists and columnists spent months trying to figure out who was going to be Aznar's successor as leader of the Partido Popular (PP—Popular Party) and president of the Spanish government.

Names came and went. Jaime Mayor Oreja was seen as a viable possibility, but the former interior minister failed in his bid to become president of the Basque Country, distancing himself from federal politics. Rodrigo Rato was the man behind most economic policies. Former PP secretary general Javier Arenas was also mentioned by some pundits.

The name of the "chosen one" was leaked to the press last Friday. First vice-president and government speaker Mariano Rajoy was the man Aznar would pitch to party members. The 48-year-old native of Galicia had also served in the ministries of public administration, interior, education and culture. Today, Rajoy was officially anointed as the party's leader-in-waiting.

The stronghold of the conservative PP in Spain started in 1996, after 13 years of government led by Felipe González of the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE—Socialist Workers' Party). The first PP administration required accords with regional parties like Catalonia's Convergència i Unió (CiU—Convergence and Union), the Partido Nacionalista Vasco (PNV—Basque Nationalist Party) and Coalición Canaria (CC—Canarian Coalition).

In 2000, no alliance was necessary. A thoroughly divided PSOE—with leader Joaquín Almunia avoiding the highly unpopular González as much as humanly possible—was no match for the PP. Aznar got a second term in office, with 183 lawmakers in the 350-seat congress.

Rajoy will face a much tougher foe in the general elections, tentatively scheduled for March 2004. A rejuvenated PSOE, led by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, actually led voting intention polls earlier this year, when Spaniards were fed up with their government's handling of the Prestige oil spill and their president's pertinacious backing of the Iraqi war.

Terrorism will be at the top of the agenda for both camps. 62.2 per cent of respondents to a May poll by Gallup say attacks by Basque Motherland and Liberty (ETA) are the biggest problem in the country. Aznar's government reached a truce with ETA, but in early 2000 the organization resurfaced.

The latest survey by Gallup—conducted before Rajoy's "destape"—has the PP at 40.7 per cent, with the PSOE at 37.2 per cent. The numbers suggest a coalition may be necessary for either political organization to form a government. The prospect of a Rajoy presidency might entice the regionalist Bloque Nacionalista Galego (BNG—Galician Nationalist Bloc) to support the PP, while Izquierda Unida (IU—United Left) could consider a new alliance with the PSOE. Just who the other parties will support remains to be seen.

Archive Search

Search the Angus Reid Global Monitor Politics In Depth archive.