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Plan For Presidential Election In Egypt Just A Start
March 02, 2005
The surprising announcement of a nationwide ballot is a welcome development, but indefinite electoral rules could throw good intentions off course.
Abstract: (Angus Reid Consultants - CPOD Global Scan) Mario Canseco - On Feb.
(Angus Reid Consultants - CPOD Global Scan) Mario Canseco - On Feb. 26, Egyptian head of state Hosni Mubarak announced his intention to amend the constitution and allow an unprecedented multi-candidate presidential election. Under current regulations, the People's Assembly settles on a single contender, who is then ratified in a nationwide referendum.
American influence may have played a role in the recent turn of events, after several months of noticeable tensions. In November 2003, United States president George W. Bush called on Egypt to "show the way toward democracy in the Middle East." The hint came at the end of a year that saw the fall of Baghdad. Mubarak chose not to support the recent U.S.-led coalition effort in Iraq—having been one of the key players in the 1991 Gulf War—claiming an invasion would only spawn more terrorists.
Mubarak's words were clear in last weekend's televised speech. Direct, secret balloting will be allowed, and political parties will have a chance to register contenders. The president's proposal still leaves a series of practical considerations that require attention. First and foremost is the influence the ruling National Democratic Party (HDW) currently holds on the country's political life.
Mubarak has held the highest office in Egypt since 1981, taking over seven days after the assassination of Anwar Sadat. His HDW has dominated the political scene in the country ever since. In the 2000 election to the People's Assembly, the HDW secured 353 seats in the unicameral legislative branch. More than 30 independents later sided with the governing party in the chamber, virtually obliterating the opposition.
A new legislative ballot is due this October, and even before Mubarak's surprising concession, several opposition activists had assembled under the "Kefaya" banner. The word—meaning "enough"—indirectly recalls Georgia's Khmara student movement, which played a substantial role in the demise of Eduard Shevardnadze's government in 2003. The group, led by George Ishaq, has organized several protests and called for greater modifications, including the implementation of American-style term limits—two four-year terms—for Egypt's head of state.
Opposition supporters have long been concerned over the possibility of hereditary succession. Mubarak—who turns 77 in May—has not ruled out becoming a presidential contender once again. Current prime minister Ahmed Nazif—who became head of government last July—has openly endorsed Mubarak's son Gamal as a possible nominee.
Gamal became the HDW's general secretary in 2002. In September 2004, eight political parties and seven non-governmental organizations issued a joint press release, setting out to achieve clear objectives: stopping the elder Mubarak from seeking a new mandate, preventing his son from ascending the presidency, and forcing an open nationwide ballot to pick the head of state. One of these three goals has apparently been conceded, but the other two remain vague.
Mubarak's announcement came just four weeks after Ayman Nour—the leader of the Al-Ghad party—was arrested and jailed for allegedly forging documents in order to officially register his political organization. Along with Nour—who denies the charges—more than 10,000 political prisoners are said to be incarcerated in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood, one of the signatories of last September's contentious press release, has seen its activities greatly reduced due to a ban.
In his speech, Mubarak vowed to ratify any constitutional amendment through the ballot box. The government has just six months to draft legislation, pass it, and put it to a nationwide vote. HDW member Mohammed Kamal—one of the party's figures in the policy area—stated that the whole process could be over in nine weeks.
No rules have been established yet for candidates and parties to contest the election. One scenario contemplates approval through the legislative branch, where four opposition parties are currently represented. This idea could be perilous, as government loyalists could conceivably block the nomination of reformists, and deem the democratic process a failure before voters get a chance to head to the polling stations.
Another method would ask prospective candidates to gather signatures in order to run. Under current regulations, a party can be officially established with 50 backers. This rationale has constantly come under fire, as the government's Parties Affairs Committee can take several months to reach a decision. On several occasions, registries have been denied on the grounds that a new party's platform is similar to the one of an existing political organization.
A referendum on constitutional amendments could certainly pave the way for an open, multi-candidate presidential election. The next few weeks of debate in the People's Assembly will determine who will contest an eventual ballot.