Originally barred from participating, Efraín Ríos Montt is polarizing views in the Central American country. So far, his numbers don't justify the hype.

Mario Canseco

The frontrunner in Guatemala's presidential election has been campaigning for the last four years. The story of Óscar Berger could be grabbing headlines around the world. The businessman left the Partido de Avanzada Nacional (PAN—National Advancement Party) after a disappointing run-off loss, re-organized his supporters under the catchy Gran Alianza Nacional (GANA—Grand National Alliance) and capitalized on the growing unpopularity of the current head of state.

President Alfonso Portillo won the 1999 election as the candidate for the Frente Republicano Guatemalteco (FRG—Guatemalan Republican Front). His approval rating has gone down considerably in the last few months. More than half of all respondents to a June survey published in Siglo XXI had a negative opinion of Portillo.

The latest voting intention poll by Vox Latina places Berger with 44.4 per cent, inching closer to an outright win. Álvaro Colom of Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE—National Union of Hope) is next, at 17.1 per cent. Colom also ran in 1999 as part of an alliance that included former guerrilla leaders, and is hoping to force a run-off should Berger get less than half of all cast suffrages on Nov. 9.

Despite capturing more than 60 per cent of all prospective voters, Berger and Colom have not been the principal characters in the race. That plum goes to Efraín Ríos Montt, a man who a few weeks ago was not even supposed to place his name on the ballot.

Ríos Montt—a former president and army general—lobbied for the FRG nomination, even though the Guatemalan constitution forbids people who participated in a coup d'etat to be presidential candidates. Ríos Montt seized power in 1982, toppling the government of Fernando Lucas García.

Human rights organizations have long censured Ríos Montt's regime, and hold him accountable for the disappearance of nearly 100,000 Guatemalans during the country's civil war. Ríos Montt has repeatedly denied the allegations.

In 1990 and 1995, Ríos Montt was barred from registering. After the Supreme Court rejected his latest appeal, the 77-year-old former head of state took his case to the Constitutional Court, the highest law entity in Guatemala. A positive decision on Jul. 15 allowed him to run for office.

The ruling was met with violence. On Jul. 24, close to 3,000 people protested the outcome, and Portillo was forced to deploy security forces to maintain order. The president rejected allegations that officers were slow to react because of his personal ties with Ríos Montt, and fired national police chief Raúl Manchame.

Last week, three presidential hopefuls decided to withdraw from the race. Union Democrática (UD—Democratic Union) candidate Fito Paiz was the first to drop out, throwing his support behind frontrunner Berger. Businessman Ricardo Bueso and Rigoberto Quemé Chay—nominated by the Alianza Nueva Nación (ANN—New Nation Alliance) and several Mayan organizations—were next. Bueso blamed his sudden departure on Ríos Montt's participation in the process, which he reckoned as an "electoral farce."

As Berger and Colom canvass the country in search for more backers, the presence of the FRG nominee is not directly affecting what is already a two-man race. Support for Ríos Montt has eroded, from 11.4 per cent in June to 7.4 per cent in July. The latest survey taken this month finds the former ruler at 3.3 per cent, numbers that hardly legitimize his candidacy.

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