Angus Reid Global Monitor : Politics In Depth

Czar-Like Succession In Azerbaijan

August 06, 2003

The prime minister quit due to "health reasons," but the president is the one who has spent several weeks in a hospital.

Abstract: Mario Canseco The political incidents that have surfaced in the former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan over the past three weeks have tarnished the country's image, angered the opposition and brought the prospect of a coronation, just weeks before a slated presidential election.

Mario Canseco

The political incidents that have surfaced in the former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan over the past three weeks have tarnished the country's image, angered the opposition and brought the prospect of a coronation, just weeks before a slated presidential election.

Heidar Aliyev has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993. The leader of the New Azerbaijani Party (YAP) was registered as a presidential candidate once again on Jul. 19. Aliyev has long been a fixture in the region, having served as the local Communist Party leader and KGB chief for almost 30 years. He is seeking another five-year term in the Oct. 15 election.

Aliyev's government has been characterized as authoritarian by human rights organizations, and the Council of Europe has chided him for holding political prisoners. The country is also involved in a lingering dispute with Armenia over the Nagorno Karabakh region. Despite sitting in an area rich in oil, corruption has kept Azerbaijan from becoming a full-fledged exporter.

Aside from these problems, the president's health came into question recently. The 80-year-old Aliyev spent all of July in a Turkish hospital, battling several heart ailments. Today, an embassy spokesman announced that Aliyev will be transported to an Ohio facility for more treatment. The president has not made a public appearance in more than five weeks.

The country's laws stipulate that if the president is unable to fulfill his duties due to illness or death, the prime minister takes over on an interim basis until the next election. With little more than two months to go before the suffrage, prime minister Artur Rasi-Zade was expected to remain in charge of the government's day-to-day operations.

Two days ago, after a Turkish website mistakenly reported that Aliyev had passed away in Ankara, a brief session of the YAP-dominated National Assembly was held. The president's son Ilham was sworn in as Azerbaijan's new prime minister, substituting Rasi-Zade who cited "health reasons" for his sudden departure.

Ilham Aliyev had already been registered as a presidential candidate, running on a platform of support for his father's policies. Now, should the current president be deemed unfit to go on, his son would become the de-facto ruler with the backing of the country's largest political party.

The elder Aliyev had been trying to raise his 42-year-old son's political profile for some time, making him vice-president of Azerbaijan's state-run oil company, and suggesting his election as vice-president of the Council of Europe's Parliamentary Assembly.

As expected, Ilham's appointment as prime minister provoked the ire of opposition parties. The younger Aliyev is not seen in a particularly positive light by everyone inside the YAP, so an alliance between ruling party members and opposition organizations cannot be ruled out.

Opponents to Aliyev had put their hopes in two exiled politicians. Former National Assembly speaker Rasul Quliyev and former president Ayaz Mutalibov were seen as good alternatives for voters, but the country's electoral commission did not allow either to be registered as a presidential candidate. Isa Gambar of the Musavat Party appears to be the only person who can topple what is already being described as a "dynasty."

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