To get his referendum on the right track, Álvaro Uribe must convince an uninformed electorate.

Mario Canseco

After years of instability, the citizens of Colombia will finally have a chance to alter the political structure of their country. President Álvaro Uribe will set a date for a 15-question referendum in the next few weeks, yearning for reforms in a country ravaged by corruption, drug trafficking and armed guerrillas.

While voters in many countries would jump at the chance to enable constitutional change, Colombians are mostly unaware of the important suffrage. In a recent poll by Invamer Gallup, more than 90 per cent of respondents were not familiar with the referendum's wording. Still, 38 per cent believed the plebiscite would be good for the country. The vote can officially take place after Jul. 10, but must be completed before Oct. 26, when regional elections will be held.

Uribe is counting on the referendum as a mid-term boost. The president was elected in May 2002 with 53.1 per cent of the vote as the candidate for Primero Colombia (PC—Colombia First), and is the main advocate for the Yes side. The planned strategy includes Uribe's own voice in more than 1 million telephone messages, asking Colombians for their support.

For the referendum to be valid, 25 per cent of eligible voters—about 6 million citizens—must participate. Opposition parties have settled on an "active abstention" approach, trying to keep voters away from the booths instead of openly campaigning against a reformist president. Each of the 15 questions will be assessed separately, and only those backed by more than 50 per cent of voters will become law.

The key element of the referendum is a two-year budget freeze, which would affect almost all government spending, including salaries. According to Uribe, the measure would save 0.7 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2003, and 1.3 per cent in 2004. These breaks are thought to be a big help for Colombia's ailing economy.

Military spending would not be included in the freeze, as Uribe does not want to jeopardize current campaigns against armed groups Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and National Liberation Army (ELN).

The referendum will affect Colombian legislators the most. Uribe's proposals include reducing the size of Congress, staging public votes, appointing an independent entity to oversee finances, lowering pensions, terminating congressmen for low attendance or fraud, and banning alternates.

Other provisions include barring embezzlers from political activity, eliminating regional auditors—investing unspent money in health and education—and dismissing political parties with less than five per cent of the vote in a presidential election, or less than two per cent in a congressional election. If this particular reform goes through, 44 political organizations currently represented in Congress would be affected. The last article facilitates the immediate adoption of all the winning proposals.

Uribe vowed to reform Colombia when he took office last August. The referendum is regarded as a step to fulfill at least some of his campaign promises, but the outcome remains in the hands of an uninformed electorate. The president has three months to get his message across, and hope for a unified response.

Archive Search

Search the Angus Reid Global Monitor Politics In Depth archive.