Bush and Blair were side-by-side on Iraq. They now stand together in falling approval ratings.

Mario Canseco

Sixteen words included in George W. Bush's State of the Union address on Jan. 28 caused a stir last weekend. The mention of Iraq's alleged aim to acquire uranium in Africa was a "mistake" according to Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director George Tenet.

The American president deflected criticism this week, but the misunderstanding has prompted a probe by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). At a time when the search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq continues—and as coalition casualties mount—Americans and Britons are starting to re-assess the push for war.

American casualties have now equaled the total of 1991's Gulf War, and 82 soldiers have died since Bush declared an end to major fighting on May 1. The emergence of resistance combatants is swaying views in the United States. An ABC News/Washington Post poll shows 57 per cent of respondents believe the war was worth fighting, 13 per cent less than in April.

Things have been more difficult for Tony Blair, as public opinion polls that question his honesty keep piling up in Britain. 66 per cent of respondents to a YouGov survey said the prime minister misled the country into going to war.

Blair has faced criticism by the opposition and members of his own party for allegedly overstating intelligence reports to make the case for war more plausible, including a recent rift between communications director Alastair Campbell and the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). Even former United Nations (UN) weapons inspector Hans Blix dismissed a British intelligence dossier, which claimed that Saddam Hussein's regime was capable of deploying weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes.

In the end, Blair's Labour Party has lost ground. Aside from a poll taken in September 2000 during a fuel crisis, the Conservatives had trailed every month since 1992. A late-June YouGov poll placed the Tories with a two per cent lead over Labour.

Blair will not face a vote until 2006, and Bush has 17 months to assure his re-election. Parallels between the current Republican White House dweller and his father have been drawn for years. They both ordered wars in the Persian Gulf, emerging with high approval ratings. Yet the elder Bush lost the 1992 presidential election to Democrat Bill Clinton solely on questions about the country's dwindling economy. Recent polls suggest Americans are starting to demand decisive action from their current head of state. 62 per cent of respondents to a Pew Research Center poll say Bush could be doing more for the economy. The president's approval rating is inching closer to pre-9/11 levels.

Despite the questions on Iraq, Bush and Blair are not facing a particularly popular opposition. The Democratic presidential hopefuls are still struggling with low name recognition. Former vice-president Al Gore and New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton—two people currently not seeking the party's nomination—came out on top in a Pew Research Center poll. Appreciation for five of the nine prospective candidates is in the lower 20s. In Britain, Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith has a 28 per cent approval rating, according to a recent ICM/Guardian poll.

Blair and Bush stood together before, during and after the Iraqi conflict. Despite falling approval ratings, their opposition has failed to turn public displeasure into plausible political gain. That could change as elections in both countries draw near.

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