Two camps will decide what's next for President Hugo Chávez.

Mario Canseco

Hugo Chávez began his presidency in Venezuela with high approval ratings, and promises to rebuild the South American country. Almost three years after he was re-elected in a landslide victory, the mood is different. The "colonel" will have to fight for his political life. A referendum on his presidency is slated for the second half of 2003.

Chávez's political career began after he served time in prison for his participation in an attempted coup. Taking advantage of a party system regarded as corrupt by most Venezuelans, Chávez ran as an outsider in 1998, under a platform constructed around the fact that he was not a politician.

After his victory, Chávez offered to wipe out corruption and help the poor, difficult challenges that were set aside due to many crises. The problems began in November 2001, when the president signed a series of laws without previous consultation with the National Assembly, which included an overhaul of the fifth-largest oil industry in the world.

Three months later, the Bolivar fell 25 per cent against the U.S. dollar, as Chávez moved unilaterally to change the board of directors at the state-run oil company. The president's style was also a source of criticism for Venezuelans, as Chávez forged closer ties with Iraq, Libya and Cuba. Months of instability and strikes ensued, which culminated in a brief coup in April 2002, which saw Chávez out of office for two days.

Last May, the government finally agreed to hold a referendum over Chávez's mandate. The Venezuelan constitution prevents such a measure once a president is halfway through his term. A coalition of business leaders, labour unions and opposition parties was assembled under the name Coordinadora Democrática (CD—Democratic Coordination) to oversee the process. The group is not only promising to organize the vote, but also aims to provide a plausible interim government should Chávez be forced out.

A referendum can only be held if the signatures of 20 per cent of registered voters—2.4 million people—are collected. The CD claims to have amassed 3 million signatures so far, but the government alleges that the process cannot begin until Aug. 19, when the president is officially halfway through his term. CD members are looking at Nov. 20 as the possible date for the vote.

Several public opinion polls conducted in the last few weeks suggest Chávez could lose the referendum. Recent economic developments have not helped the president at all. Unemployment is at 19.1 per cent in Venezuela, and finance minister Tobías Nóbrega has been asked to explain the rationale behind some recent debt deals. Human Rights Watch urged Chávez to withdraw a proposal to control content in radio and television broadcasts. Some journalists have reported threats and aggression by government officials.

The recent introduction of a Cuba-designed literacy campaign has further infuriated critics who believe Chávez is turning Venezuela into a communist state. Cuban doctors have also provided volunteer services in some cities, without proper validation to practice medicine in the country.

In a nation with 22 registered political parties, two camps are prevalent. CD supporters believe toppling the president is the only way to bring Venezuela back into the international community. Chávez's backers see the referendum as a last-ditch effort by business leaders to install a caretaker government that would benefit the higher classes. For now, both sides are willing to face the electorate. Just how each will react to the results is still anyone's guess.

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