While no coronations took place on either side of the American political spectrum, the barrage of primaries and caucuses left much to ponder.

Mario Canseco - Six months ago, it seemed reasonable that this would be the day to start writing political obituaries, assess the head-to-head contests of the two winners of the presidential primary season, and review which campaign still had the war chest to tackle a national race. After the final numbers of Super Tuesday became available, both contests are nowhere near done.

On the Republican side, Arizona senator John McCain has a substantial lead in delegates, won nine of Super Tuesday’s contests, and proclaimed himself as the frontrunner. While the road to the nomination seems less bumpy now, the map shows a big problem for McCain’s ability to court the conservative vote. He was unable to make his case in the southern states.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney had a rough night. His numbers in head-to-head national contests against either of the two Democrats are particularly low, and the support of conservative pundits—either direct or by omission—did not lift him to capture more than he was supposed to.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee solidified his position as one of the key contenders for the second spot in the Republican ticket. He has shown that he can win in the south, which will be particularly important if a general election has McCain as the GOP nominee.

While Romney was supposed to benefit from the pleas of Rush Limbaugh and Anne Coulter, Huckabee inadvertently conquered the late night audience, with Conan O’Brien, Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert literally fighting over him. Huckabee has vowed to continue, but his name has been probably etched in the final list of McCain’s potential running mates, along with Florida governor Charlie Crist.

While followers of Texas congressman Ron Paul have provided a unique freshness to this electoral process, his numbers simply do not suggest that a revolution is brewing. Paul will carry on, but even the prospect of a Libertarian Party bid—which generated the interest of eight per cent of likely voters in November—seems bleak. Paul’s young supporters will probably be torn between the anti-war rhetoric of Barack Obama, and the fiscal revamp promised by Huckabee.

McCain has had eight years to reflect on the mistakes of the 2000 race. Back then, a win in New Hampshire pointed to a successful campaign, yet his bid was eventually abandoned as Texas governor George W. Bush gained momentum. Back then, McCain may have lost his edge during a televised debate, when he chastized the Bush campaign’s tactics. "You’re putting out stuff that is unbelievable, George, and it’s got to stop," McCain declared looking forlorn and disturbed. In the end, Bush made it all the way to the White House.

This image brings us to last month’s debate in California, where Romney played McCain, and McCain played Bush. They were seated next to each other, perhaps to make the job of photographers easier by tuning out the supposed minor contenders. "How is it you are the expert on my position (on Iraq) when my position has been very clear?" an angry Romney said to McCain. The Arizona senator never raised his voice, as Romney became more agitated inside the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

Eight years ago, Republican primary voters were put-off by McCain’s whining. Romney’s defence, while decidedly more forceful, could have had the same effect. Romney may have been hurt by his decision to challenge McCain over semantics, and for closing several of his interventions with a schoolmarmish "Facts are stubborn things."

In head-to-head contests versus the prospective Democratic nominees, McCain has placed himself in a virtual tie, while Romney continues to struggle. Indeed, building national name recognition is difficult for governors, particularly for those who are not the offspring of a former president. Still, while McCain has been able to shake criticism of his views on Iraq and immigration reform, Romney remains vulnerable due to his earlier statements on abortion. In the end, electability might be a bigger question in the mind of Republicans when they cast their ballot.

The Democrats are effectively taking part in a two-person contest. Following weeks of disgraceful altercations between their respective campaigns, New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Illinois senator Barack Obama were cordial in their last debate. The message, which according to Super Tuesday results does not apparently benefit one more than the other, is simple: The Democrats are the only ones who can deliver change to Washington.

Still, Obama is the one who has momentum, a solid fundraising operation, and a campaign that has surprised in the constancy of its inclusiveness. However, despite the occasional "Sí se puede" at his campaign rallies, Obama is having a tough time courting the Hispanic vote. In Illinois, he garnered roughly half of the votes from Hispanics, and California was called for Rodham Clinton long before anyone expected.

Obama has a clear advantage. Support for his candidacy has increased as the weeks have gone by, while Rodham Clinton is benefiting from the seemingly insurmountable lead she held when the race began. In states that voted under a caucus format, Obama has been almost unbeatable so far, losing only Nevada but still garnering more delegates.

Still, Rodham Clinton should not be underestimated. She won California and New Jersey, which were seen as key challenges for Obama, and retains the frontrunner mantle, as far as the number of delegates is concerned. As the race heads to Ohio and Pennsylvania, her campaign will seek more debates with Obama, while the Illinois senator can attempt to command the airwaves with new advertisements. In these two key states, the eventual endorsement of former North Carolina senator John Edwards would prove crucial. Edwards was the clear favourite for voters in the Buckeye State, and his blessing to either of the remaining contenders could turn him into kingmaker well before the Democratic convention.

Archive Search

Search the Angus Reid Global Monitor Politics In Depth archive.