Mwai Kibaki's reelection triggers violence, showing the gloomy face of a prosperous African nation.

Gabriela Perdomo - Over 600 hundred people have died and close to 2,500 have been displaced in Kenya’s current turmoil, triggered by a tight and questionable presidential election that saw the incumbent winning a second term in office in late December.

The scenario is gloom. Mwai Kibaki’s re-election—at least debatable by several accounts by both national and international observers—has unveiled a violent truth: the economically-sound African nation is further from political stability and maturity than it was thought. The recent events have baffled the international community and those who have seen Kenya become an example of sustained growth and national stability over the past few years—an oasis surrounded by deeply troubled nations like Sudan, Ethiopia and Uganda.

The hopeful picture of Kenya was suddenly shattered on Dec. 27, when Kibaki secured another six-year term as president. Raila Odinga, his main opponent and leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), called for a ballot recount and accused Kibaki of fraud. Kibaki took office within hours of hearing the electoral results on Dec. 30, even as observers and employees with the national electoral commission denounced irregularities at several voting tables.

Almost immediately after the results were revealed, violent attacks against Kibaki supporters were reported. Most of the attacks have concentrated in Burnt Forest, a region where farmers of the Kikuyu tribe—to which Kibaki belongs—have been attacked by Kalenjin warriors, who are paid to commit crimes against them. Odinga supporters have also registered victims throughout the country. ODM has accused Kibaki of "genocide" for attacking protesters on the streets with the country’s security forces.

The gruesome violence registered in Kenya over the past few weeks has brought back pictures of ethnic unrest and old grievances. Daniel arap Moi, a Kalenjin and former president of Kenya, had already utilized ethnic rivalries with the Kikuyu for his own political gain in 1992 and 1997. Moi left a legacy of political militias and brutality. Kibaki won the 2002 election mainly because Kenyans turned to him in the face of Moi’s brutal techniques and corrupt government.

But ethnicity is not the only issue under the spotlight here. While the world praised Kenya and Kibaki for reaching an average economic growth of 6.0 per cent for the past four years, those keeping a close look knew there is just a small group benefiting from the seemingly sound performance. Kenya’s educated middle class has seen almost a decade of prosperity. Their businesses have pushed the economy forward and brought investments to the nation. But bright macro-economic indicators make no justice to the reality on the ground. In Nairobi, over 60 per cent of Kenyans live in slums, and are evidently not enjoying the much advertised growth. Prosperity is also hard to find outside the capital city. Odinga’s presidential campaign was largely based on the growing wealth gap—most of his supporter base resides in the poorest areas of Kenya.

Now, the most preoccupying sign of the current turmoil is that, as it has been suggested by several reporters on the scene, Kenya’s electoral violence seems to have been planned before the ballot took place. If this is the case—rather than an episode of spontaneous political violence or a regeneration of old ethnic rivalries—Kenya has a larger problem than its politicians are caring to admit. And, at this point, they are admitting little.

Neither Odinga nor Kibaki are stepping up to end the violence. Odinga called for a three-day national rally, while government security forces said they would not allow the protests. Both parties are against international mediation. A visit by African Union (AU) chief and Ghanaian president John Kufuor to Kenya earlier this month failed to bring the parties together. Former United Nations (UN) secretary general Kofi Annan is due to arrive in Kenya to organize a mediating panel, but his efforts might be useless, too. Kibaki and Odinga are refusing to meet in person. The re-elected president maintains there is no crisis and no need for mediation, while Odinga says he will not talk to him until Kibaki steps down from his "illegitimate" post.

Meanwhile, violence and fear are taking Kenya hostage. Besides the fatal victims and displaced populations, the unrest is set to leave an economic dent on the country. More than $1 billion U.S. have been lost in just over two weeks as tourists around the world are being advised against traveling to Kenya, one of Africa’s most favoured destinations. Investors have put their projects on hold as they see the country struggle with unrest, and many fear confidence will take a while to come back.

While Kibaki and Odinga are showing no will to end the crisis, the clock is ticking for a nation that is crucial for regional stability.

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