The proportional representation system only exacerbated current political divisions.

Mario Canseco - Ukrainian voters will renew the Supreme Council tomorrow, in an election that is meant to put an end to a year of accusations, complaints and volatility. Judging by the latest results of voting intention polls, neither of the two main political forces will secure a clear mandate, and the difficulties are bound to continue.

A survey by the All-Ukrainian Sociological Service suggests that the Party of Regions (PR) of current prime minister Viktor Yanukovych will emerge as the top party in the country, with the opposition Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc in second place, and the coalition of the People’s Union-Our Ukraine (NS-NU) of Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko and the People’s Self-Defence Bloc in third place. Previous studies by the Transitional Democracy Fund, the Fund of Liberty, and FOM-Ukraine have also shown the same order of popularity for the three main parties.

In recent days, Yushchenko has attempted to rekindle the spirit of the December 2004 "Orange Revolution", when a series of peaceful protests eventually led to a presidential re-vote. Yushchenko has appeared side-by-side with Tymoshenko in several rallies, calling on voters to support the "Orange Forces" in order to prevent Yanukovych from heading the government once again.

The task will be much tougher this time around than in 2004. Yanukovych has managed to retain his followers as Yushchenko’s presidency has matured, and his victory in the March 2006 legislative contest allowed him to return to the prime minister’s office after the less-than-stellar premierships of Yushchenko’s appointees. The strained relationship between Yushchenko and Yanukovych was one of many factors that forced the early parliamentary ballot, and the president’s promise of a new constitution has done little to bring more voters into the fold of the NS-NU.

If Yanukovych’s PR gets the largest number of seats in the Supreme Council, it may want the first chance to form a government. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have refused any cooperation with the incumbent prime minister, but post-election talks could lead to practically anything imaginable. A "grand coalition" encompassing the PR and the NS-NU is certainly a possibility, although Tymoshenko has already said that this would amount to "treason."

Yanukovych, whose so called "anti-crisis" coalition with the Socialist Party of Ukraine (SPU) and the Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU) oversaw the activity of the Supreme Council for just over a year, has not ruled out any type of agreement with the "Orange Forces", claiming the process of negotiations will depend largely on the actual outcome of the election. In addition, Yanukovych is also calling for reforms, particularly a change that would allow a government to work for at least five consecutive years.

In all, 20 parties will try to fill each of the 450 seats in the Supreme Council. In 2006, the country abandoned its mixed system—where 225 members were elected in single-seat constituencies, and 225 were chosen by proportional representation—in favour of a full party-list system with a three per cent threshold. The change only maintained the geographic divisions that were evident in the 2004 presidential ballot, with Yanukovych’s base located mainly in Eastern regions, such as Odessa, Crimea, Kharkiv and Luhansk; and the "Orange Forces" still strong in the Western areas, including Lviv and Vinnytsia.

It is unclear if a new assessment of the electoral system will become part of Yushchenko’s proposed constitutional reform. Even former president Leonid Kuchma is hinting that the current head of state might be forced to step down if the outcome of the election is too harsh on him. Still, changing the way Ukrainians elect their lawmakers might be the solution that brings true stability to the country.

A survey released earlier this month by the Razumkov Center asked Ukrainians about their preferred electoral system. While 26.9 per cent of respondents supported the old mixed system—and 33.3 per cent called for a true first-past-the-post approach—only 15.4 per cent backed the current proportional representation party lists. The electorate is clearly dissatisfied with the way their vote will be tallied. 

Ukraine’s aspiration of joining the European Union (EU) should begin with a profound re-evaluation of its electoral regulations. A switch to the first-past-the-post system will allow for a true legislative contest, with candidates concentrating on regional issues and connecting with the public on a personal level, instead of a watered-down presidential campaign where three or four personalities dominate the airwaves. Also, the figure of a run-off—in the event no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the vote in a specific constituency—should also be implemented to allow voters the opportunity to actually bestow a mandate upon a political party.

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