The former president is back. Will voters unite for or against him?

Mario Canseco

When Carlos Menem stepped down as president of Argentina in 1999, posters with his name, picture and the year "2003" were plastered all over Buenos Aires. After 10 years of uninterrupted rule, Menem was constitutionally barred from immediately seeking office. He had to wait four years.

Nothing could have prepared Argentines for the developments that followed after Menem's departure. The government's decision to peg the peso to the dollar—an idea proposed by Menem's finance minister Domingo Cavallo—backfired in 2000. A decline in consumer confidence provoked substantial withdrawals from banks, and by late 2001, violent protests, riots and looting ensued. Newly elected president Fernando de la Rúa and Cavallo—in his second stint as finance minister—both resigned.

It is hard to fathom that Argentina was once regarded as an example for all of Latin America, after ridding itself from an oppressive military regime and conducting fair and democratic elections. Half of the country's 36 million inhabitants now live below the poverty line. The unemployment rate is 21.5 per cent. Several rural communities in the country are facing the peril of starvation.

Three interim presidents later, Argentines head to the polls later this month. Menem—now 72—is running once again, after spending the last four years defending himself from a barrage of allegations and charges.

Last year, a deposition from an Iranian intelligence agency defector stated that Menem was paid $10 million U.S. to deny Iran's involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish Community centre in Buenos Aires.

Menem was also placed under house arrest for several months, over his involvement in an illegal scheme that sent 6,500 tons of weapons and ammunition to Croatia and Ecuador. The news came as a shock for South Americans, as Menem had been the peace mediator during a brief border dispute between Ecuador and Peru.

A month before Argentines cast their votes, a poll by Ipsos Mora y Araujo shows how much Menem means to this presidential race. The former president came in second in vote intention, with 15.8 per cent of support. But when asked who their next head of state will be, 43.1 per cent of Argentines mentioned Menem. Respondents may not give Menem their vote, but assume he'll somehow find his way back into the Casa Rosada.

Polls show that no candidate comes even close to the 45 per cent of all votes required to avoid a run-off. Menem's Frente por la Libertad / Unión del Centro Democrático (Front for Liberty / Union of the Democratic Centre) is only one of three coalitions where followers of Juan Domingo Peron are seeking the presidency. Néstor Kirchner of the Frente para la Victoria (Front for Victory) and Adolfo Rodríguez Saá of the Alianza Frente Movimiento Popular / Partido Unión y Libertad (Alliance Popular Movement
Front / Union and Liberty Party) are also among the top choices, but only two candidates will participate in the final vote.

If Menem makes it to the run-off, the remaining political forces are hinting at an anyone-but-him coalition that could easily see the former president defeated. In a campaign where no candidate has reached 30 per cent in voter support, avoiding Menem might prove to be the moment of unity for Argentines.

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