Unemployment and terrorism top the list of concerns for citizens, but political developments in Catalonia and the Basque Country are becoming imperative as well.

Mario Canseco

When Spain's ninth general election since the restoration of democracy was officially announced on Jan. 9, voters were well aware of president José María Aznar's retirement. The ruling Partido Popular (PP—Popular Party) chose first vice-president and government speaker Mariano Rajoy as the new party leader six months ago.

In early 2003, Aznar faced massive public demonstrations for backing the war in Iraq, as well as criticism for the government's handling of the Prestige oil spill off the coast of Galicia.

Aznar's problems were initially regarded as an opportunity for the opposition Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE—Socialist Workers' Party), out of office since 1996. PSOE leader José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero enjoyed an 11 per cent lead over Aznar in a Gallup approval rating survey conducted last March. Zapatero's numbers began to drop in the following weeks, as Rajoy gained notoriety.

Lack of jobs and terrorism are still the key concerns for most citizens. In a December poll by CIS, unemployment was mentioned by 63.1 per cent of respondents as the main predicament in the country, followed by the possibility of attacks by Basque Motherland and Liberty (ETA).

Spain's unemployment rate is the highest among European Union (EU) members at 11.2 per cent, well above the continental average of 8.0 per cent. Local labour unions usually disagree with these figures, claiming 30 per cent of the country's workforce is hired under temporary contracts.

Since 1959, ETA has killed more than 840 people in its struggle to form an independent state encompassing the Spanish regions of Navarra and the Basque Country, as well as areas in southwestern France. A cease-fire was accorded between the separatists and the government in 1998, but the organization resurfaced again in January 2000.

The magnitude of regional governments and parties has never been underestimated in Spain, particularly after Catalonia's Convergència i Unió (CiU—Convergence and Union), the Partido Nacionalista Vasco (PNV—Basque Nationalist Party) and the Coalición Canaria (CC—Canarian Coalition) allowed Aznar to form his first government in 1996.

Things have changed in two of those autonomous regions. CiU is no longer in charge of a regional administration, as a coalition encompassing the PSOE's Catalan wing, the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC—Socialist Party of Catalonia), and the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC—Republican Left of Catalonia) took over on Dec. 20, 2003.

Not even a month after the landmark achievement, the alliance was thrown into jeopardy after ERC leader Josep Lluís Carod-Rovira established unofficial contact with ETA members in early January. Carod-Rovira has since left his post as Catalonia's deputy president, remaining in cabinet as a minister without portfolio.

The Catalan government crisis has become a national electoral issue for the PP. Rajoy has questioned the PSOE's ability to govern because of "inconsistencies" in its stance on separatist violence. Zapatero retorted by deeming the PP's reliance on terrorism as an electoral tool as "repugnant."

As far as Basque political organizations, the PNV elected Josu Jon Imaz as the new party leader last month. The PNV's regional government—presided by Juan Jose Ibarretxe—has been increasingly active. Ibarretxe recently proposed to redefine the Basque Country's relationship with Spain, through a "shared sovereignty, free association" deal.

The PNV aims to hold a public referendum on the matter, but no action can be taken unless the Basque Legislative Assembly unanimously approves the plan, and the federal Congress and Senate also voice their agreement. The three feats seem intangible at the moment.

Even before the Catalan crisis, two surveys pointed to a victory for the ruling party. In a December 2003 poll by Gallup, the PP held an 8.9 per cent lead over the PSOE in voting intention. A January study by Instituto Noxa published in La Vanguardia suggests the ruling party would secure a third straight majority with 174 lawmakers in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies.

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