In 10 months, support for the prime minister's cabinet has dropped dramatically.

Mario Canseco - Less than 10 months into his tenure as Japan's prime minister, Shinzo Abe is clearly afflicted. For a while, it seemed that the only way Abe would get into trouble would be by visiting the controversial Yasukuni Shrine as his predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, had done on several occasions. Now, as the first electoral test for his administration draws near, a series of scandals and ill-timed remarks could play a role in defining the length of his mandate.

Japanese opinion surveys differ from many others all over the world, where the approval rating of the head of government is reviewed. In Japan, pollsters ask the public about the whole cabinet. In September 2006, when Abe took over, he assembled a 22-person team that featured both familiar faces and newcomers. Seven-in-ten respondents to a Yomiuri survey expressed satisfaction with the prime minister's choices. Abe also showed restraint in refusing to even discuss the possibility of turning Japan into a nuclear state, despite the fact that North Korea had carried out a test detonation of an atomic weapon.

In 2007, the cabinet began to unravel. In January, health minister Hakuo Yanagisawa attempted to call attention to Japan's low birthrate, which stood at 1.32 in 2006. In a speech, Yanagisawa referred to women as "birth-giving machines" and later stated that it was "extremely sound" to have more than two children. Indeed, a birthrate of 2.1 is required to keep the population in Japan from declining, but Yanagisawa's choice of words led to widespread criticism.

In March, Abe ruled out a cabinet reshuffle, and said he would "go into the elections with the current cabinet." Although the vow was made in order to defend Yanagisawa, it has simply been impossible to fulfill.

In May, agricultural minister Toshikatsu Matsuoka, who was accused of inflating his office expenses and was being investigated over alleged bid-rigging in road construction projects, committed suicide. The government attempted to turn the unexpected development into a national reflection on the competitive nature of Japan, where about 30,000 people take their own lives each year. The gesture, while sincere, did not make voters forget about the scandals.

The biggest setback by far also took place in May, when Japan's Social Insurance Agency (SIA) revealed it cannot identify close to 50 million payment records. Later, the SIA acknowledged that about one per cent of all handwritten registers on pension premium payments could differ from computerized data. Recent demographic projections suggest that by 2025, Japan could have one person over the age of 65 for every two who are working—a fact that makes transparency in the SIA even more significant. Mistakes in this area will not be taken lightly.

Abe tried to curry public favour in the same way he did during the early stages of his tenure, when he lowered his own salary by 30 per cent, and reduced the salaries of all cabinet members by 10 per cent. The prime minister vowed to give back almost half of his summer bonus—valued at around $44,000 U.S.—to the state's coffers.

Repeated apologies by Abe and other cabinet members over the SIA problems have not led to an increase in public confidence. As the Jul. 29 election to the House of Councillors draws near, the public is clearly disappointed. Almost half of respondents to a Nikkei survey said they want the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the New Komeito Clean Government Party (Kt) alliance to lose their majority in the upper house. For a party that has governed almost uninterrupted since the end of World War II, this level of rejection is astounding.

A defeat in the upper house election—where half of the mandates will be renewed—would not immediately force the end of Abe's tenure. Thanks to the election called by Koizumi in 2005 over his plan to privatize Japan Post, the lower house—the House of Representatives—can sit with its current LDP-Komeito majority until September 2009. Still, the LDP has been known to make drastic changes after the ruling party does poorly in democratic processes. One of Abe's predecessors—Sosuke Uno—saw his tenure cut short after the DPJ emerged victorious in the July 1989 upper house ballot.

Abe's strength was supposed to be constitutional review, particularly when a majority of Japanese adults believe changes in the country's body of law—written after Japan's defeat in World War II, during the American occupation—are warranted. The process, where the establishment of an actual defence force for Japan is one of the key themes, has been derailed again by an errant statement. Yesterday, Abe accepted the resignation of defence minister Fumio Kyuma, who appeared to justify the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki—where his constituency stands—during World War II.

At the start of the month, less than a third of respondents are satisfied with the cabinet. Abe has taken responsibility for the mistakes of his team. If the LDP fails to secure most of the upper house seats at stake this month, he may have to produce one final apology.

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