The numbers place the two presidential hopefuls as the favourites in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Mario Canseco - Six months from now, American voters will know which candidates emerged victorious in the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, a fact that will simplify the process of picking nominees for the 2008 presidential race.

At this stage, three prospective contenders from each party have been regarded as the frontrunners. On the Republican side, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani has consistently appeared in first place in national surveys, ahead of Arizona senator John McCain and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

As far as the Democrats, New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton leads Illinois senator Barack Obama, with former North Carolina senator John Edwards appearing as a distant third, or fourth, in some surveys that still feature former U.S. vice-president Al Gore as a choice.

The last three polls conducted in Iowa, which makes or breaks presidential aspirations, have solidified the chances of the two candidates sitting in third place on the national stage. The survey by Selzer & Co. gave Romney the support of 30 per cent of GOP caucus voters, with both McCain and Giuliani below the 20 per cent mark. Edwards enjoyed a six-point lead over Obama, and was eight points ahead of Rodham Clinton.

The Iowa study by Research 2000 suggested a tight race among Republicans, with the three main contenders in the late teens, and Rodham Clinton two points ahead of Edwards. Another survey, by Zogby International, also placed the three Republicans below the 20 per cent mark, but gave Edwards a two-point edge over Rodham Clinton.

In New Hampshire, Romney is clearly ahead of all other Republicans. Polls by Zogby International and SurveyUSA gave the former Massachusetts governor the support of more than 30 per cent of primary voters. Rodham Clinton barely leads Obama in the Zogby poll, and holds a large lead in the SurveyUSA study.

In order to assess the effect of the early success of Romney and Edwards in the first two presidential contests, it is fitting to review what transpired roughly four years ago. In April 2003, six months prior to the Iowa Democratic caucus, Missouri representative Dick Gephardt appeared as the most popular presidential hopeful in a poll by Zogby International, at 25 per cent. Massachusetts senator John Kerry was second with 13 per cent, and former Vermont governor Howard Dean was fourth with just six per cent. Dean eventually overtook Gephardt in the fall, but Kerry dominated when it counted—at the start of 2004.

In New Hampshire, the two northeast politicians rallied back and forth since mid-2003, but in the end, Kerry was the clear favourite as voting day approached.

A Gallup national poll conducted in April 2003 placed Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman—well known nationally as Gore's running mate in 2000—as the top Democrat with 23 per cent, followed by Kerry with 17 per cent, and Gephardt with 15 per cent. Four years ago, Gephardt was leading in Iowa and trailing nationally, a similar scenario to the one Edwards faces right now.

As far as head-to-head national contests, the surveys have been particularly ambiguous. Rodham Clinton, Obama, Edwards, and Giuliani do well against their rivals, depending on the poll and the date, but McCain and Romney have stumbled severely.

Still, the American president is chosen by the Electoral College, so the surveys in every state also call for an early review. Giuliani leads his prospective foes in the key states of Ohio and Florida. In Pennsylvania, the best hope for the Democrats—as far as numbers—is the presently idle Gore.

Away from the main battlegrounds, polls conducted by SurveyUSA in April suggested that Edwards could carry Kentucky, which has picked the winner of every presidential election since 1964, and Missouri. The former North Carolina senator is tied with Giuliani in Virginia, which has not backed a Democrat in a White House race since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. In addition, Edwards is the only Democrat who leads Giuliani in Wisconsin, which has not given its electoral votes to a GOP nominee since Ronald Reagan's landslide in 1984.

A wide open race with no incumbent or vice-president running could have the potential of redefining the Red-Blue map that has characterized the U.S. in the past two presidential elections, particularly as candidates get ready to discuss topics that could alienate their bases. Edwards and Romney are clearly doing something right in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively, but sustaining this early success will prove challenging.

Archive Search

Search the Angus Reid Global Monitor Politics In Depth archive.