Two former prime ministers seek to supplant Ehud Olmert.

Mario Canseco - For the past three months, the government headed by Kadima leader Ehud Olmert in Israel has stumbled. The evident public displeasure with the performance of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) during last year's armed conflict against Lebanon-based Hezbollah has left many voters yearning for a tougher approach to national security.

Former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose Likud party suffered one of its most embarrassing defeats just last year, is patiently waiting for a new chance. Since March, Likud has appeared as the favourite political organization for Israeli voters, and as the only party with the potential to clear the 30-seat mark when the next Knesset election takes place.

Kadima has been unable to match this support, particularly after the release of the Winograd Report, which looked into Israel's handling of last year's war. Olmert, as well as defence minister Amir Peretz and IDF chief of staff Dan Halutz, were chided for "very serious failings" in their decision-making process before and during the conflict. Halutz lost his job, and Olmert has faced criticism from the opposition and fellow party members alike.

Still, Peretz is probably the next person who will lose his job. The Labour party will hold its primary on May 28, and the surveys clearly place former Israeli admiral Ami Ayalon and former prime minister Ehud Barak as the main contenders. Ayalon has been adamant in his intention to topple Olmert as soon as he gets the chance, calling for the formation of a "rehabilitation government." Barak has been more subdued, saying he would "probably" abandon the governing coalition.

The difficulties of Olmert's tenure also brought forth the possibility of a new political party. In February, Russian-Israeli billionaire Arcadi Gaydamak introduced a new political movement, called Social Justice. The nascent organization has appealed to Israelis who are disappointed with politics, a growing sector considering the recent scandals involving politicians, from the president to the former justice minister.

Gaydamak's reliance on populism, outlined when he offered shelter to residents of northern Israel during the war against Hezbollah, was further enhanced with his pledge of millions of U.S. dollars to fortify public and residential structures in Sderot. Gaydamak has chosen Jerusalem for his first foray into politics, so his effect on a national race is still unknown.

Kadima's instability and Labour's hopes of leaving the coalition could help Netanyahu. The former prime minister has remained consistent in his message about the threat posed by Iran, and his disapproval of any further Israeli withdrawals from the Gaza Strip and West Bank. Netanyahu, who left the cabinet of Ariel Sharon after opposing the "Disengagement Plan", usually appears on first place in polls that ask Israelis who they would prefer as prime minister.

For now, Netanyahu has attempted to revive a plan that calls for a confederation encompassing Jordan and the Palestinian Territories, while flatly rejecting the Arab League's most recent proposal, which entails Israel's withdrawal from the occupied territories, a successful resolution to the refugee issue, and the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Netanyahu has also been one of the most vocal critics of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Israelis have long expressed concerns about Iran, and a majority recently voiced support for unilateral military action by the United States.

Syria has also appeared in several discussions about the future of Israel. Late last year, many Israelis supported the start of peace talks with the government headed by Syrian president Bashar Assad, but without discussing the area of the Golan Heights—approximately 1,860 square kilometres of land—which was seized by Israel during the 1967 war, and annexed to its territory in 1981.

Israel's political scene seems destined to revolve once again around Likud and Labour, as Kadima currently seems incapable of emerging from its war setbacks. Next week's internal primary will define the scope of the next general election. Ayalon promises change and a new way of governing, while Barak's supporters regard him as the only Labour member capable of defeating Netanyahu. With the Palestinian Territories, Iran and Syria as the key foreign policy concerns, Israeli voters—on the left and the right—might end up opting for experience.

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