Politics In Depth

New Iraq Strategy Will Not Yield Poll Bounce

January 12, 2007

American public opinion is clearly upset with the current state of affairs.

Abstract: Mario Canseco - United States president George W. Bush addressed the nation this week, to present his new strategy for the coalition effort in Iraq.

Mario Canseco - United States president George W. Bush addressed the nation this week, to present his new strategy for the coalition effort in Iraq. The primetime appearance marks the end of a long period of consultation and review, which included the participation of the Iraq Study Group—a bipartisan panel of experts—and countless meetings with top advisors.

Before Bush spoke directly to the nation, White House press secretary Tony Snow said it was "important to bring the public back to this war, and restore public confidence and support for the mission." The U.S. president has consistently steered clear of commenting on the outcome of polls. The surveys conducted over the past two months clearly show how the perceptions of Americans on this conflict have soured.

The cornerstone of Bush's new strategy is the deployment of more than 20,000 additional American soldiers to Iraq, "to help Iraqis clear and secure neighbourhoods, to help them protect the local population, and to help ensure that the Iraqi forces left behind are capable of providing the security that Baghdad needs." In the latest Gallup/USA Today poll, conducted before the address, only 36 per cent of respondents supported a temporary but significant increase in the number of U.S. troops in Iraq.

A survey by Knowledge Networks for the Program on International Policy Attitudes showed agreement with some of the Iraq Study Group's recommendations, such as withdrawing almost all U.S. combat troops from Iraq by early next year, and a public statement ensuring that the U.S. does not seek permanent military bases in the country. Bush did not cover either of these topics in his speech.

In a poll by CBS News, only three-in-ten Americans think removing Saddam Hussein from power was worth the loss of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq. Bush did not mention Hussein by name in his speech, nor did he speak about the liberation of a country.

A survey by TNS for the Washington Post and ABC News found that 57 per cent of Americans are pessimistic about how the situation in Iraq will evolve over the next 12 months. In his final message, Bush forecast a year that will "demand more patience, sacrifice, and resolve."

The verdict of public opinion is unambiguous. Americans disagree with the proposed troop surge, favour a withdrawal over the next 12 months, believe the war was meaningless, and are unenthusiastic about the future of Iraq. These numbers will not change significantly over the next few weeks. The American president's approval rating closed the year in the mid-30s, lower than in any of the Decembers he has spent in Washington.

At this stage, the main participants in the debate over Bush's proposal are the Republicans who seek to replace him. Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel called the president's plan "an escalation", while U.S. state secretary Condoleezza Rice referred to it as "augmentation." Kansas senator Sam Brownback said the U.S. "cannot achieve a political solution while a military solution is imposed."

Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani issued a statement in support of the plan, saying he backs "the focus on security and the emphasis on a political and economic solution." Arizona senator John McCain chose the Washington Post for an editorial, claiming the "presence of additional coalition forces" would "give the government a fighting chance for reconciliation."

Former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich endorsed some of Bush's views, but added that the government needs to do "far more." Finally, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney agreed with the current head of state, saying, "It is impossible to defeat the insurgency without first providing security for the Iraqi people."

The prospective Republican nominees have already drawn their lines, a year before the first 2008 presidential primary. Hagel and Brownback, the consensus long shot contenders, have clearly split from the White House. Giuliani, McCain and Romney stand by the president, for now.