Politics In Depth

Ecuador’s Decade of Instability

April 30, 2006

Free trade and oil are the dominant topics, as the date for the next election draws near.

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) Gabriela Perdomo - Once again, the president of Ecuador has become one of the most unpopular figures in the country.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) Gabriela Perdomo - Once again, the president of Ecuador has become one of the most unpopular figures in the country. Over the past 10 years, Ecuadorians have had seven different presidents. The government's institutions have weakened, diplomatic relations are tense with many countries, and the general feeling is of despair.

Just a year after vice-president Alfredo Palacio became the head of state, public opinion polls show that most citizens believe the change at the helm was not worth it. Palacio was the second-in-command during the tenure of Lucio Gutiérrez, who was forced out after a popular revolt. A Quito-based group was successful in calling for his dismissal. The National Congress and the country's military leaders withdrew their support for the elected president.

Palacio arrived as a promise of renewal. His popularity surpassed 53 per cent, when he vowed to establish a constituent assembly and call for a referendum so Ecuadorians could make important decisions about a variety of topics, such as the proposed free trade agreement with the United States. Just 12 months later, the country is slightly more stable due to changes in the Supreme Court, but the political arena remains in disarray.

Throughout the past year, Palacio has changed almost 250 high-ranking state officers, including four government ministers, three energy ministers and three finance ministers. He has switched three private secretaries, and 11 presidential advisors. Petroecuador—the state-administered oil company—has seen five different persons in charge. Palacio has so far been unable to fulfill on his promises of an assembly and a referendum, mostly because he has no solid backing in the National Congress.

The president's credibility index has plummeted to 22 per cent in Quito and 27 per cent Guayaquil, according to Informe Confidencial. Cedatos/Gallup reveals that 62 per cent of respondents believe the South American country is now worse off than when Gutiérrez was in charge. Only 12 per cent of respondents approve of Palacio's performance.

At home, Palacio has faced several difficulties to handle the various crises that are related to oil and free trade. Late last year, indigenous groups blocked the country's main roads for weeks to protest the possible signing of the commerce deal sought by the interim president. In the south, Palacio faced the anger of groups that demand more investment in infrastructure and education. These organizations are located in the areas where foreign companies are currently extracting oil.

With neighbouring Colombia, Ecuador's Foreign Ministry has had to step in and diffuse tensions. Palacio's government said last year that Ecuador is "neutral" in its assessment of Colombia's internal conflict—a position that was not well received in Bogotá. On several occasions, the Ecuadorian government has complained because Colombian planes have invaded their air space without warning, as they fight armed groups near the border.

Now, the statement made by Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez—who has signalled his willingness to abandon the Andean Community of Nations (CAN)—will only add to Palacio's woes. Chávez accused Ecuador of "mistakenly following in the footsteps" of Colombia and Peru, who have signed free trade deals with the U.S.

Palacio has pushed for a quick review of the commerce agreement, so it can be signed as soon as possible. Still, negotiations have slowed down considerably. Washington is not particularly satisfied with proposed reforms to the labour code and other requirements for ratification, and the possibility of reaching the date of the presidential election—scheduled for Oct. 15—without a deal in hand seems likely.

Also, the National Congress approved a new hydrocarbon law in late March, which will allow Ecuador to keep at least 50 per cent of the profits from the sale of oil exploited by multinational firms. The measure did not amuse the U.S. government, and has become a new problem in the talks to achieve a free trade deal.