Credit:angus-reid.com

In two countries, support for certain presidential contenders has been understated.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) Mario Canseco - This past December, the last voting intention survey conducted by Grupo Ipsos Captura before the presidential election in Bolivia placed Movement to Socialism (MAS) candidate Evo Morales in first place with the support of 34.2 per cent of respondents, followed by former head of state Jorge Quiroga of We Can (Podemos) with 29.2 per cent.

In accordance with the Bolivian constitution, lawmakers in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate select the president from the top two finishers in the event no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the vote. The poll suggested that the fate of the South American country's head of state would fall on the hands of the legislative branch. In the end, Morales won outright with 53.7 per cent of all cast ballots, while Quiroga finished second with 28.6 per cent.

In Costa Rica, the last two studies to be released before this month's presidential election suggested a victory for National Liberation Party (PLN) candidate Óscar Arias Sánchez, with more than 45 per cent of the vote. In the polls by Demoscopia and CID-Gallup, Arias' closest rival was Ottón Solís of the Citizens Action Party (PAC) with 24 per cent.

On election day, the celebration at the PLN headquarters was cancelled, after preliminary results suggested a close race. With 88.44 per cent of all polling stations reporting, Arias is barely ahead with 40.51 per cent of the vote, with Solís a close second with 40.28 per cent.

The cases of Bolivia and Costa Rica appear to suggest that the actual level of support for the leftist candidates in Latin American presidential elections is being understated in the public opinion arena. Morales finished almost 20 percentage points ahead of the final prediction, and Solís did better—by 16 percentage points—than the surveys implied.

There are several factors that could have played a role in the discrepancies between polls and results. A large number of undecided Bolivian voters may have backed Morales as part of a perceived bandwagon effect. Solís may have attracted more supporters by effectively positioning himself as the only Costa Rican contender who would oppose the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA).

Public opinion is, above all, an exercise based on honesty. In Costa Rica, 34.5 per cent of registered voters stayed away from the polling stations on Feb. 5. Some poll respondents may have voiced support for a candidate, only to remain at home on election day.

Citizens could have also misled the pollsters by failing to say which particular candidate they were actually voting for. This type of problem has happened before, most recently in the Palestinian Authority's legislative election, where the surveys—even the exit polls—predicted a lower percentage for Hamas. However, in the particular case of Latin America, the problem might lie in two groups that are usually left off voting intention surveys: people with no telephone, and people with cellular telephones.

This year, Peru and Mexico will elect new presidents. In both countries, the polls have been suggesting a different outcome for the leftist candidates, presumably the ones who rural electors—those who could be inaccessible for pollsters—would support.

Ollanta Humala of the Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) managed to get close to Lourdes Flores Nano of the Popular Christian Party (PNP) in December, but recent surveys show her with a larger lead. In Mexico, the advantage for Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) over former energy secretary Felipe Calderón of the governing National Action Party (PAN) was as high as nine points last month.

In Peru, all signs point to a second round between Flores Nano and Humala. Even if support for the PNP contender turns out to be higher on Apr. 9, it would be hard to fathom either contender getting more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots.

Mexico, with no run-off, provides a very different scenario. In the 2000 ballot, the country's voting intention surveys were fairly accurate in predicting a close race between the PAN's Vicente Fox and Francisco Labastida of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). In that election, the leftist candidate—the PRD's Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas—was not considered as one of the two main contenders, so the effect of a rural, leftist vote could not be gauged.

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