Credit:Anthony Atkielski

The presidential candidate drops back, after a few ill-timed comments

Mario Canseco - A few months ago, global media outlets were pondering the possibility of a woman becoming France's head of state. Ségolène Royal was set to obliterate internal opposition in the Socialist Party (PS) primary, and lead the nation's foremost centre-left political organization back into the presidency. Then, Royal began to discuss the one topic that can only backfire: foreign policy.

In an effort to deflect criticism of her lack of international experience, Royal embarked on a tour where she faced innumerable opportunities to steer clear of making controversial statements. The idea behind this move was to feature Royal, the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes, in a "presidential" mode. She was pictured discussing several topics in the Middle East and Asia, and even found time to talk about Québec.

The results were nothing short of disastrous. In the Middle East, the presidential candidate failed to properly address the remarks uttered by a Hezbollah leader, who compared Israel's presence in Lebanon with Nazi occupation in France. In Beijing, Royal said the French justice system "could learn" from China. Amnesty International (AI) refers to China's justice system as "plagued with corruption and secrecy."

Then, during a radio interview, Royal used the words "sovereignty and freedom of Quebec" in what seemed to be an effort to express solidarity with Canada's francophone community. In reality, the statement provoked harsh rebuttals from Quebec premier Jean Charest and Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper. In failing to properly address controversial topics in three different regions of the world, Royal managed to destroy any glimpse of presidential promise that could have been gained from the photo-ops.

Nicolas Sarkozy of the governing centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP)—who has extended his lead in the latest voting intention surveys—runs a campaign with the advantages of incumbency, having refused to step down as interior minister until next month, but with a clear message that he will not inherit the traits of Jacques Chirac. The current president's popularity has tumbled over the past four years, after an enormous surge when he decided to oppose military action in Iraq.

Sarkozy's problems come not from foreign policy—a visit to Washington for a meeting with U.S. president George W. Bush went largely unnoticed—but from particular features of his tenure as interior minister. Over the past few days, Sarkozy was criticized for allocating government resources to solve a case regarding his son's scooter. Understandably, rivals seized on the opportunity to question whether every single burglary will be dealt with as swiftly.

The Royal-Sarkozy duel seems destined to head to a second round. Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) has not generated the momentum of 2002—when he became Chirac's surprise rival—and is having a hard time generating support. The far-right candidate spoke about a "tsunami" coming to the beaches where children are playing. Apparently, someone has outdone Royal in untimely imagery.

The biggest surprise of the race has been Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou, who has remained above the 10 per cent mark in the last seven surveys, and has even surpassed Le Pen sometimes. Bayrou has become the main advocate for the "third way", taking his campaign to the people and accusing the mass media of focusing too much on the key leaders. Still, Sarkozy and Royal are not polling as weakly as Chirac and former prime minister Lionel Jospin did in the 2002 process. In order for Bayrou to secure a place in the second round, a major catastrophe must strike either of the two dominant camps.

In French elections, hard-line support for the far-left, environmental and traditionalist presidential candidates usually accounts for 30 per cent of the vote. In 2002, Chirac and Le Pen each reached the second round with the support of less than 20 per cent of French voters. Right now, Sarkozy has surpassed 30 per cent in the last seven surveys, while Royal cannot climb back to make this a race that would be too close to call. In preliminary run-off trials, Sarkozy's lead has ranged from two to eight per cent.

The next opportunity for Royal to turn the campaign around comes this Sunday, when her official presidential program will be unveiled. In the document, her views on the key topics for France—immigration, European integration and economic recovery—will be featured prominently. French citizens still have 10 weeks to go before the fist round, and countless debates and opportunities to assess their vote. Still, if Royal does not get a bounce from her platform announcement, Sarkozy's frontrunner tag will become impossible to remove.

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