The government claims it needs to guard against the manipulation of public opinion, but certain media reports point to a different motivation.

Rob Annandale - A proposed Moroccan law could soon have a chilling effect on measuring and reporting on public opinion in the country. According to national media reports, a new bill currently under review would require prior authorization from a survey ethics committee with teeth before any research could be carried out. The organism's powers would go well beyond those of a consultative ethical body.

Those choosing to disregard the committee's rulings, whether by conducting a poll or by publishing or commenting on its findings, would face stiff financial penalties and/or a prison sentence of up to one year. The proposed eight-person ethics body's makeup—including the government's secretary general and the ministers of the interior, justice and communication—raises serious concerns about potential restrictions on studying issues that could make the regime uncomfortable.

In addition to the limitations imposed by the committee's rulings, an article of the law would outright ban surveys which might be perceived as questioning Islam, the monarchical system, the country's "territorial integrity"—anything to do with the dispute over Western Sahara which Morocco claims as its southern provinces—or the "respect due" to the king and his family. These special cases are the famous "red lines" which Moroccan journalists have had to dance around for years. But this new law would also ban surveys on the topics, sparking fears that academic research could also be impacted.

Whether this new development is part of a larger trend is difficult to say. On the one hand, a new World Bank study shows the country's levels of freedom of expression and government accountability in freefall since 2002. On the other, the latest Reporters Without Borders report on worldwide press freedom has Morocco up 22 places from last year.

The officially-stated reason behind the bill is the need to guard against irresponsible and unethical manipulation of public opinion. But according to certain media reports, the real motivation comes from a pair of recent public opinion embarrassments to the regime.

One stemmed from a seemingly harmless "Man of the Year" magazine poll conducted among 100 of Morocco's public figures late last year. A furor erupted, however, when the results placed King Mohammed VI in a very unregal second position behind the president of the country's official human rights body, Driss Benzekri.

The other hiccup involved research carried out by the International Republican Institute (IRI), an American think-tank whose board of directors includes such Republican heavyweights as John McCain, Brent Scowcroft and Lawrence Eagleburger. According to two IRI surveys conducted in 2005 and 2006, the Justice and Development Party (PJD), a moderate Islamist party currently serving in the opposition, would win next year's parliamentary elections with up to 47 per cent of public support.

In the aftermath of the 2003 Casablanca bombings which targeted the city's small Jewish population and the publication earlier this year of a book in which a senior French intelligence officer compares Morocco to Russia in 1916, the government is in damage-control mode. On a visit to France last week, Moroccan prime minister Driss Jettou told the host country's Movement of the French Enterprises (MEDEF)—the main employer's federation—that all was well and fears of rising Islamist sentiment must not affect European investment in his country.

Whether Jettou's projected assurance is justified remains to be seen. In a country where the powers of parliament and the government pale in comparison to those of the king, election results would likely have a limited impact over the short term. But a PJD victory would be a difficult signal to ignore.

Unlike some other Islamist groups in Morocco, the PJD does not call the monarchy into question and enjoys a certain level of support from Washington as a legitimate interlocutor. Nevertheless, its election would certainly hint at popular discontent with the traditional parties and business as usual.

The logical conclusion might be that the regime needs to pay closer attention to the wants and needs of a frustrated population. The proposed law on opinion polls suggests that King Mohammed VI is leaning in the other direction. If one is to believe what can be read in Morocco's more independent media, the consequences could be dire.

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