Angus Reid Global Monitor : Politics In Depth

Peru’s Alan García: The Sequel

September 08, 2006

Credit:Agência Brasil

The president is under great pressure to deliver to those who elected him despite a disastrous first term.

Abstract: Gabriela Perdomo - The options in Peru's presidential election earlier this year were hardly ideal. After an exhausting and negative campaign, voters were left with two candidates for the run-off.

Gabriela Perdomo - The options in Peru's presidential election earlier this year were hardly ideal. After an exhausting and negative campaign, voters were left with two candidates for the run-off. One was Ollanta Humala, a radical nationalist and former military man of indigenous descent who ran an aggressive campaign, claiming to be the saviour of the poor. The other was Alan García, an infamous former president who left the country in bankruptcy after his mandate between 1985 and 1990.

On Jun. 4, García—a member of the American Revolutionary People's Alliance (APRA)—won the ballot with 52.63 per cent of the vote. The outcome meant a bittersweet victory for many who considered him to be the lesser of two evils. Today, just over a month after he took over again, García is proving to be, if not a good president yet, at least a savvy politician. His popularity is raising fast both internationally and at home.

According to a poll by Datum Internacional, 64 per cent of respondents are satisfied with the president's tenure so far. Another survey by Apoyo shows that 63 per cent of respondents approve of García's performance. These figures represent a significant increase from the numbers the president had before his inauguration.

Many factors might have contributed to this hike. One of them is a widespread feeling of relief not only among the former president's supporters, but also from those who feared Humala's radical attitudes. This is evident not only in Peru but especially in the international community, and more specifically within the global financial arena. Even though García portrays himself as a centre-left politician, his economic fiasco in the 1980s almost guarantees that this time he will have to abide by orthodox economic rules, more typical of right-wing governments.

García is aware of this and is already working on it. The president appointed several conservatives to key economic posts over the past few days. Julio Velarde—a former economic adviser to right-wing presidential candidate Lourdes Flores Nano—was chosen to lead the Central Bank. Luis Carranza, the new finance minister, is considered to be one of the toughest and most conservative economists in the country. José Antonio García Belaúnde, the new foreign minister, has said he will focus on signing a free trade agreement with Chile and other similar deals with other neighbouring nations. Peru and Chile have already entered talks.

In a broader level, the neo-liberal friendly approach is working well. Still, many criticize the president's failure so far to explain how exactly his government will be able to cut spending and invest at the same time in programs to tackle poverty, improve the education and health systems, and ameliorate the nation's infrastructure. Peru's economy is growing at a yearly average of 5.0 per cent, most recently due to high prices in commodities the country exports, such as copper, gold, steel and uranium.

For now, the new government can count on a good income flow to design its spending policies, but many analysts warn that the price of these commodities is vulnerable to change, and might immediately affect Peru's economy. This is one of many issues García's cabinet has to be prepared for. Among others is the increasing unrest in mining zones, where workers are demanding better wages and other benefits now that the industry is booming. The Peruvian president has played a conciliatory role so far that is regarded as positive by all sides. It is too early to tell if it will be effective to keep both mining companies and mining populations at ease.

After four weeks of designing the road map for the five-year term ahead, the president's strategy of portraying himself as a wise man who learned from his mistakes seems to be working. But García sure knows that the unofficial slogan of his second mandate is "the second chance". If he fails to improve the state of affairs of the more than half of Peruvians who live in poverty—as he claims he will—the two-time president will be two-times infamous. There is no such thing as a third chance.

Archive Search

Search the Angus Reid Global Monitor Politics In Depth archive.


Advanced Search