The focus of the campaign switched, and now the impending question is whether Stephen Harper can lead the Tories into majority territory.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Tomorrow, Canadians will cast their ballots in the federal election. The final batch of voting intention polls have placed the opposition Conservative party as the dominant force. The Liberals began to stumble as a result of the allegations surrounding finance minister Ralph Goodale, and a series of so-called "negative" television advertisements failed to completely reverse the trend.

The latest polls by The Strategic Counsel, Ekos Research Associates, Ipsos-Reid, Leger Marketing and SES Research place support for the Tories between 36 and 38 per cent. This number is lower than the 40 per cent mark the party hit earlier this month, but definitely places Stephen Harper in the best position to form a government.

The Liberals did not reach 30 per cent in any of these last five surveys. The New Democratic Party (NDP) appeared with 20 per cent in the Ekos study, which also gave the Bloc Québécois 12 per cent. The numbers for both parties are slightly lower in the remaining polls.

At the start of the year, we asked several questions on the possible outcome of the federal election. Now, some of those answers have become clearer.

In this particular question, the surveys appear to be pointing in different directions. SES Research, Ipsos-Reid, Ekos and Leger place the Tories ahead—with leads ranging from two to four percentage points—while the Strategic Counsel finds them tied with the Grits. The outcome in Ontario, where Harper needs a 15-seat swing to get on the way to 24 Sussex, will depend on specific ridings.

The Bloc Québécois only hit the 50 per cent mark in the Ekos study, with the remaining polls placing their support between 42 per cent and 47 per cent. The Conservatives easily surpassed the Liberals in the five polls, and emerge as the federalist alternative for a quarter of Quebecers. Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe has steered clear of his earlier prediction of surpassing 50 per cent. In the five national samples, the Bloc has fallen below the 12.4 per cent it received in the 2004 federal election. Duceppe will still control a majority of the seats in the province, but the outcome will not represent the expected breakthrough.

The last week of the campaign finds Jack Layton's New Democrats in a much better spot, with a low of 17 per cent and a high of 20 per cent nationally. This result would be superior to their 2004 total of 15.7 per cent. Layton made one final attempt to curry the favour of disgruntled Liberal voters, by asking them to back the NDP "just this once." If the 2004 election affected the NDP as voters went Grit to keep Harper out, Layton is suggesting a somewhat similar tactic to give his party more clout in the House of Commons. We are yet to witness what effect this might have in specific races.

The Conservatives are clearly in command in Canada's westernmost province, with leads that range from five to 14 percentage points. The numbers could indeed be higher than the 36.3 per cent the party received in 2004, which was enough for 22 of the province's 36 seats. If the current national numbers remain stable, British Columbia would actually decide if Harper goes to Ottawa with a majority.

The Greens hit a high of seven per cent in some national studies, and had an average of five per cent in the last five surveys. Green leader Jim Harris said he expects to win seats, partly due to the "high discontent with all the traditional old-line parties." The answer for the long-term aspirations of this political organization remains in the concept of proportional representation, but a surprise—if many of the expected 700,000 votes fall in the right place—could be in store. The party's two deputy leaders—David Chernushenko in Ottawa Centre and Andrew Lewis in Saanich-Gulf Islands—are the ones to watch.

Discuss the Canadian election in our Live Commentary section.

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