The president’s likely successor, Dilma Rousseff, should be given a chance to not be him.
Gabriela Perdomo - The toughest challenge Dilma Rousseff will face over the next four years, if she wins Brazil’s presidential election on Oct. 3 as expected, will be that she is not Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Gabriela Perdomo - The toughest challenge Dilma Rousseff will face over the next four years, if she wins Brazil’s presidential election on Oct. 3 as expected, will be that she is not Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Lula, as the world came to know him, is without a doubt one of the most successful living political leaders of our time. He is credited for transforming Brazil into a global model for emerging developing nations, lifting millions of people out of poverty, and giving Latin America’s left a chance to re-invent itself.
Rousseff, Lula’s former chief of staff, is on her way to succeed him. Voting intention polls, like the most recent one published by Datafolha, say Rousseff will secure victory in the first round of voting. Every available survey shows her winning the run-off on Oct. 31 if the first round is not conclusive.
Once she takes over, Rousseff will carry the burden of demonstrating that her predecessor’s policies were indeed sustainable while at the same time introducing ideas of her own.
As the ongoing electoral campaign has shown, criticizing Lula amounts to political suicide. Allies and opponents alike have campaigned offering different levels of continuity and have avoided personal attacks against a president who stands to leave his post with the backing of seven-in-ten Brazilians after two four-year terms in office. Rousseff will be an easier target.
A quiet but efficient civil servant, Rousseff has never faced the wrath of an electorate, never mind the destructive anger of jealousy within a party. Her presidential bid, almost entirely pushed by Lula himself, did not enjoy a unanimously warm welcome in the Workers’ Party (PT). She had not belonged to the party for that long—joining in 2001—and many resented her appointment. Moreover, the party is filled with old-school and aging politicians, many of whom are uncomfortable with the idea of a female president—she would be the first in Brazilian history.
A strong opposition party will find it easier to attack Rousseff betting that she will never be as popular as her charismatic mentor. The moderate conservative Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB) is a well organized political machine. Its leaders feel that Lula has been unfairly credited with Brazil’s many recent successes, while he was really building on solid foundations first introduced by his predecessor, the PSDB’s Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
The party’s presidential hopeful is former Sao Paulo governor Jose Serra, an experienced and successful politician. Like everyone else, Serra is only mildly critical of Lula in public. If recent televised debates are any indication, he will be a harsher critic of Rousseff.
Rousseff should prepare for tough popularity battles abroad. The international community and in particular Western financial media came to respect Lula only after his policies yielded impressive results. Many voices have raised concerns about Rousseff, advising her to stay on the market-friendly and moderate path championed by Lula—and warning her against attempts to try anything different. The new president will find it hard to push for new measures facing a defensive audience.
International media is also anxious to see how the new president will manage Brazil’s new status as a powerful emerging economy and influential actor in international relations. Lula raised the country’s profile enormously. Rousseff’s experience in the international arena is limited; but she will inevitably face difficult questions, mainly on new economic and political partnerships struck with countries like Iran.
In Latin America, two important tests await Rousseff in her capacity as a left-wing leader: Cuba’s gerontocratic dictatorship is about to unravel, and Venezuela’s president Hugo Chávez is losing popularity while holding on to his tight grip on power. Regional leaders will undoubtedly seek Brazil’s guidance in dealing with these issues. Again, Rousseff’s diplomatic credentials will be tested and compared against those of Lula.
Brazilians are granting Lula one more vote of confidence in accepting his anointed successor. If they do not ask her to be just like him, Dilma Rousseff might well shine in her own right.
