Brace for tight elections in Chile and Uruguay
Gabriela Perdomo – Both located in what is known as the South Cone, Chile and Uruguay are two of the most stable democracies in South America. The two have emerged from a dark period of military dictatorships and oppressive regimes to become prosperous nations with strong democratic institutions and credentials.
Gabriela Perdomo – Both located in what is known as the South Cone, Chile and Uruguay are two of the most stable democracies in South America. The two have emerged from a dark period of military dictatorships and oppressive regimes to become prosperous nations with strong democratic institutions and credentials.
Since the restoration of democracy in Chile (1990) and Uruguay (1984), there is no doubt both countries have become a symbol of political stability and, in a way, political maturity in the region. However, Chile has always been considered as a bigger player in the region, both economically and politically than Uruguay.
Today, Chile and Uruguay share the 23rd place in the global Corruption Perceptions Index by the watchdog Transparency International, the best ranking amongst Latin American countries. The two nations, along with Argentina, also have the lowest inequality index in Latin America according to data gathered by the United Nations (UN). Both countries have shown a solid economic performance in the past decade, mainly driven by strong exports.
In Chile, a coalition of centrist and leftist parties known as the Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD) has won every election since the end of the Augusto Pinochet dictatorship. In Uruguay, the leftist Progressive Encounter – Broad Front (EP-FA) secured a decisive victory the most recent presidential and legislative elections, ending the historic hegemony of the country’s two top political parties, the liberal Red Party (C) and the conservative National Party-Whites (PN-B).
Though both governments have performed quite well and satisfaction with the incumbents runs as high in Chile as it does in Uruguay, there are signs that upcoming elections in both places may result in a change of direction.
The most recent Chilean presidential election poll shows that the CPD’s candidate, former president Eduardo Frei Ruiz Tagle, is trailing his conservative rival, Sebastián Piñera, by 15 points. Throughout the entire year, Piñera—who lost the last time around to incumbent Michelle Bachelet—has led in all first round and run-off scenarios. The election is scheduled for Dec. 11.
There could be winds of change in Uruguay as well. President Tabaré Vázquez’s Broad Front is leading voting intention polls for the presidential and legislative elections that will be held in tandem on Oct. 25, but not by a very wide margin. Factum shows in its latest survey that 45 per cent of Uruguayans would support the ruling alliance, while 38 per cent would vote for the right-wing PN-B.
It is hard to predict how the presidential race will unfold in Uruguay, since most surveys ask voting intention questions only by party line. José Mujica, a 74-year-old former leader of the rebel Tupamaros National Liberation Movement (MLN), is representing the ruling Broad Front. He is facing the PN-B’s former president Luis Alberto Lacalle, and Pedro Bordaberry—the son of former dictator Juan María Bordaberry—of the PC.
Whatever the outcome of the two upcoming elections, the growing support for conservative parties in Chile and Uruguay is of great significance. Both Piñera’s Alliance for Chile (APC) and Uruguay’s PN-B are parties with former ties to the defunct dictatorships. The APC has not played a major role in the building of Chile’s post-military-regime history, while the PN-B has been more active in Uruguayan politics since the return of democracy.
Though echoes of military rule still resonate with some Chileans and Uruguayans, the larger presence of the conservatives in today’s political life does not suggest that this is what voters aspire to return to. Instead, it may mean that the more moderate wings of the Chilean APC and the Uruguayan PN-B have finally managed to re-build their image and offer a true option of democratic rule for the new generations.
A victory for the right in Chile would mark a stark contrast with the last almost three decades of CPD rule. However, the opposition is neither running a campaign for radical change, nor advocating for an immediate departure from the current government’s policies. In many ways, and so voters seem to believe, a transition of power from the left to the right would be less traumatic than it may sound, and it could be a welcome breath of fresh air to re-invigorate the country’s democracy.
The change, if it comes at all, would be starker in Uruguay, where the PN-B would most likely reverse several of the policies introduced by the leftist alliance since it came to power in 2004. In this case, the stakes are higher, since the two parties represent the two farthest points of Uruguay’s political scene.
