Chancellor Merkel is emboldened to embark in a new type of government coalition.
Gabriela Perdomo – If the dozens of polls conducted this year in the run-up to Germany’s federal election are right, the conservative Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) will have once more the chance to form the government.
Gabriela Perdomo – If the dozens of polls conducted this year in the run-up to Germany’s federal election are right, the conservative Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) will have once more the chance to form the government.
This time, however, the CDU-CSU will not rely on an ideological nemesis, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), to govern. Current chancellor and CDU leader Angela Merkel has said that the so-called Grand Coalition is no longer viable, and has suggested that the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) will be invited as a ruling partner if everything goes as planned in the September ballot.
Polling firms Forsa and FG Wahlen are both predicting that the CDU-CSU will get around 36 per cent of the vote in the Sept. 27 election to the Federal Diet—enough to form a government but not enough to rule solo. Support for the FDP hovers at around 15 per cent, meaning that both groups could together secure half of the vote share.
Although the Social Democrats could ultimately garner more votes—their support stands at around 25 per cent in every recent poll—they are no longer wanted in power. For a long time now, the leadership of both the SPD and CDU-CSU has expressed that the experiment that brought them together after the 2005 election was a stretch and a necessity, and that the time has come to part ways.
On Jul. 19, Merkel unequivocally shut the door on a new grand coalition with the left, saying, "We need decisive policy—for growth, for technological advancement, to move forward, reduce bureaucracy. (…) As far as I’m concerned, we can do better with the FDP."
By most accounts, and judging by Merkel’s popularity, the sitting government has been successful. Despite the rifts between the members of the governing alliance, Merkel, the first female chancellor of Germany, has overseen a major economic boom—granted, followed by a bust late last year, mostly on account of the global financial crisis—and has risen the profile of her country in Europe. A fierce negotiator, Merkel has been at the centre of major international policy initiatives on a wide range of issues, from the Lisbon Treaty to global warming to the Middle East peace process.
Some people think that the chancellor has been able to do more for Germany abroad than internally. This could partly be blamed on the awkward alliance with the Social Democrats. In the last election, Merkel campaigned on a platform to modernize the German economy by liberalizing labour laws and introducing tax cuts. Most of her initiatives proved to contrary to the wishes of the SDP. The bills that were approved were, according to the chancellor, watered down versions of the originals.
An alliance with the FDP, at least ideologically speaking, does make more sense. A government seating comfortable on the right side of the political spectrum may be more efficient and face fewer philosophical obstacles.
A fully conservative German administration could clearly be successful. If the government is able to push its reform agenda, including the widely promised tax cuts and changes to the labour code, Germany could enter a new era of prosperity. Voters could eventually reward the right with yet another chancellorship in the next election. Another bonus is that Merkel would no longer be seen as a mediator and a centrist, but the conservative that she is supposed to be.
A second scenario is also plausible. An aggressive conservative agenda could go too far. There could be a backlash following economic reforms. If new policies widen the wealth gap and fail to address the needs of the less privileged, the left will prove its point and will find a new reason to regroup and regain lost ground amongst voters. This could also be true for Germany’s large environmental movement which, if overlooked by the conservative crowd, could be a strong voice in the opposition.
The next grand alliance will certainly run more smoothly than the current one, but the FDP should not expect an easy ride just because of ideological affinity. Merkel has surprised both peers and voters before. She may be a conservative, but she also was not always in disagreement with the SPD, which put her at odds with her own base more than once. It remains to be seen how much, if at all, Merkel’s leadership style will change after cozying up to the FDP.
