The Kirchners have failed to convince their fellow countrymen that their governing duo is the right choice moving forward.
Gabriela Perdomo – Argentina will hold mid-term elections on Jun. 28. The ballot will undoubtedly be a referendum on the government of current president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her predecessor and husband, Néstor Kirchner.
Gabriela Perdomo – Argentina will hold mid-term elections on Jun. 28. The ballot will undoubtedly be a referendum on the government of current president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her predecessor and husband, Néstor Kirchner.
Judging by recent opinion polls, the Kirchners and their centre-left governing coalition, the Front for Victory (FV), are hardly in good shape. A March poll by Poliarquía Consultores shows that only 29 per cent of respondents in Argentina have a positive opinion of the president. The positive rating for Néstor Kirchner—in a different survey conducted in September—is even lower, at 25 per cent.
True, these numbers only reflect the people’s opinions on the governing duo, not those on their political party. Still, the negative image of the couple will no doubt affect the stance of their Justicialist Party (PJ) and its allies in the ballot, not least because Mr. Kirchner himself will head the PJ list for the lower house in the province of Buenos Aires.
Moreover, the PJ is facing such internal turmoil that it will practically guarantee that no party gets a congressional majority next month. A dissident faction lead by former Kirchner ally Felipe Solá is already strong in the legislature and is pitting candidates against the ruling faction.
Argentina’s recent political history has been almost completely tied to the economy, following the spectacular financial meltdown of 1999. The upcoming election is no different. Voters will choose half of the 257 seats of the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate’s 72 mandates amidst a climate of discontent.
The upbeat years of economic recovery have come to a sudden pause. The period of rapid growth that Mr. Kirchner oversaw hand-in-hand with economy minister Roberto Lavagna—who later became his critic and Mrs. Kirchner’s electoral rival—has come to an end. The succession of Mr. Kirchner by his wife Christina has coincided with much tougher times for the third largest economy in Latin America.
Many people blame the current government for inflation, tabled by some independent organizations at as much as 20 per cent over the past year—although official numbers put it below 10 per cent. A prolonged drought has severely affected Argentina’s main export crops—soy and corn—and the global recession also hit the South American hard.
In that sense, not all criticism is fair. The global recession has directly affected Argentina’s agricultural and mining exports; a situation that is happening all across the continent. But the administration of Fernández de Kirchner has also made some mistakes. Last year, the government engaged in a bitter dispute over export taxes on soybeans, damaging its relationship with farmers. The row had a huge impact in production and distribution, and also marked the starting point of internal party fighting. Solá split from the Kirchners over the matter. Argentinean vice-president Julio Cobos also distanced himself from the president as he cast the tie-breaking vote that killed the government’s tax bill. The relationship between the president and Cobos remains strained.
The government has also faced fierce criticism for its recent nationalization of the pension system, which has subsequently been used as a source of cash. Voters will definitely turn sour if a case of mismanagement affects their own pensions.
Not all is bad news for the Peronist power couple. The Kirchners still enjoy massive support from labour unions, which remain an influential political force in the country. And, as was the case in the 2005 congressional election, there is no unified opposition at the moment that could represent a major threat. Four years ago, the FV garnered almost 30 per cent of all cast ballots. Its closest rival—the Radical Civic Union (UCR)—could not reach the 10 per cent mark.
After all, the current political scenario may be beneficial for Argentina as a whole. If the governing coalition keeps a narrow advantage in the legislature, it will still hold the keys to power but will also be forced, like never before, to appease its opponents. So far, Fernández Kirchner and her team have been accused of being autocratic and acting unilaterally. If she finds a way to shine in a new power dynamic, the head of state might even find her second wind after a tough 16 months in office.
