(01/08/09) - How Livni and Barak Outhawked Netanyahu
The military incursion in Gaza challenged preconceived notions about which Israeli politicians care about security.
Mario Canseco – In the last days of November, a new victory for the Kadima party in Israel seemed implausible. New leader Tzipi Livni had failed in her quest to assemble an administration, and the main partner in the outgoing coalition, the Labour party, had lost support dramatically, even falling to single digits in some prospective seat counts. Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu looked like a prime minister-in-waiting.
Mario Canseco – In the last days of November, a new victory for the Kadima party in Israel seemed implausible. New leader Tzipi Livni had failed in her quest to assemble an administration, and the main partner in the outgoing coalition, the Labour party, had lost support dramatically, even falling to single digits in some prospective seat counts. Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu looked like a prime minister-in-waiting.
Now, with the military incursion ordered by the government to stop the launching of Qassam rockets into Israel from Gaza in its second week, the political scene has changed dramatically. Israelis wholeheartedly support the aerial attacks ordered by the outgoing government. Labour is once again the third-ranked party in the country, and Kadima has managed to tie Likud. Very few people are now talking about the improprieties surrounding Ehud Olmert, technically still the head of government. The focus, four weeks before voters cast their ballots to renew the Knesset, has shifted to who can be trusted to ensure Israel’s security.
Last year, Netanyahu secured the top spot in preferred prime minister polls, branding himself as the most qualified leader to deal with outside threats. Livni was usually second in these surveys, and Barak trailed further back.
In authorizing military action in Gaza, the key members of the governing coalition—Livni and Labour leader and defence minister Ehud Barak—appear to be sending a clear message to voters: Kadima and Labour can protect Israel.
In a way, the operation launched by Israel has afforded Livni and Barak with an opportunity to erase the political setbacks brought upon by their predecessors. The 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, orchestrated by Olmert and former Labour leader Amir Peretz, turned out to be one of the biggest defeats for Israel, at least in the eyes of the public. The failed campaign allowed Netanyahu to brand himself as the only politician capable of taking action when needed. Olmert and Peretz were subjected to an embarrassing inquiry, as support for Likud gradually increased.
Last year, Olmert’s administration was able to establish a "calm agreement" with Hamas, which did not satisfy any constituency. Israelis were almost evenly divided on the benefits of the deal, and a large majority expressed dismay over the government’s failure to secure the release of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier who had been captured by Hamas in June 2006. Palestinians, for their part, supported the idea proposed by the Egyptian government to deploy Arab forces in Gaza to ensure the stability of the area.
While Hamas—under the name List of Change and Reform—emerged victorious in the January 2006 Legislative Council election, governance in Gaza and the West Bank has been complex. Three years ago, Hamas ran a campaign based on condemning Fatah for nepotism and abandoned promises, only to end up in the awkward position of establishing a "grand coalition" nobody wanted. The 2007 cooperation agreement between Fatah and Hamas lasted just six months, and was followed by Hamas’ decision to seize control of Gaza.
A new presidential election was supposed to take place this month in the Palestinian Territories. Current Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas has consistently come out ahead of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in voting intention surveys.
During Olmert’s tenure, several avenues for diplomatic solutions were explored, including an attempt to reach an agreement with the Palestinian Authority, and a series of guarded talks with Syria. The creation of a Palestinian state remained elusive in 2008. Israelis clearly preferred to establish "a Palestinian state alongside Israel", while Palestinians flatly rejected the creation of two states on the "historic land of Palestine." The next round of talks will undoubtedly feature new players, both as facilitators and stakeholders.
The ongoing military campaign has had an immediate impact on Israel’s electoral race. In the end, Israeli voters will not respond to international outcry or questions about excessive force. In early November, almost half of Israelis said security and peace policies would matter the most when they choose a party in February.
If the conclusion of this conflict is regarded as a success, a coalition featuring Livni and Barak might be feasible for voters, and bearable for the minor parties that will hold the balance of power. Kadima and Labour would have nabbed the "security" issue away from Likud, something that seemed impossible just a few weeks ago.
